(meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100

[Roberto]

Hi Mikhail,
I task that the maximum has happened some hours before the hour from you
written why was obvious that around to 21h40m the UT the activity it is
coming down. I observed in that period (21h30mUT-01h30mUT) and the thing was
noticed very well.
It is true that during the 12-19 UT little observed but considering also the
observations of the 0-2 UT of the 27 seems probable that one like hour of
the maximum.
Clear Skies,
Roberto Haver

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
To: "Global Meteor Observing Forum" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 11:43 AM
Subject: Re[4]: (meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100


> Oops, I looked at wrong column in ZHR profile, given by IMO for the
> June Bootids 1998. Actually it shows a long maximum with ZHR about 100
> meteors from 11:50 to 19:30 UT 27 June. And I should note, that in my
> prediction of 1998 I also give a long period of singnificant activity
> - from 3 UT 27 June to 3 UT 28 June which corresponds to the profile
> quite good. I.e., I did not mention a sharp peak near 21:40 UT, but a
> broad maximum around it. Note also, that observations in the period
> 12-19 UT were very scattered, so ZHR values, derived from them are
> quite unreliable. So I think the timing of prediction is satisfactory
> while maximum intensity is overestimated.
>
> Best regards, Mikhail
>
>
>
>
> R> Hi Mikhail,
> R> But from observations IMO the maximum has been around to the 14 UT (but
with
> R> much uncertainty why various the high activity is duration hours).
> R> Clear Skies,
> R> Roberto Haver
>
>
> R> ----- Original Message ----- 
> R> From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
> R> To: "Global Meteor Observing Forum" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
> R> Sent: Saturday, April 21, 2007 8:52 AM
> R> Subject: Re[2]: (meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100
>
>
> >> Hello, Roberto,
> >>
> >> IMO data show that in 1998 the June Bootids gave a maximum at 22-23 UT
> >> of 27 June, so the timing of my prediction (21:40 UT) is quite
> >> accurate for old 19 century trails. However, I significantly
> >> overestimated ZHR. One of main reasons is low observing base - we have
> >> only several cases of the June Bootids activity so it is difficult to
> >> build an interpolating function of activity for various conditions.
> >> Even with the Leonids predicted ZHR values differ 2-3 times from
observed
> >> ones. The June Bootids are studied much less.
> >>
> >> Best regards, Mikhail
> >>
> >>
> >> R> Hi,
> >> R> for the 1998 the data that they give are these:
> >> R> 1998 max 27.06 21:40 (UT) and ZHR 600/700
> >> R> To me it turns out that the maximum has been around to the 14 UT of
the
> R> 27
> >> R> and with ZHR of approximately 200.
> >> R> I observed that evening and to that hour, from written you like the
> R> maximum,
> >> R> the activity was coming down and it was not moreover cosi high.
> >> R> Roberto Haver
> >>
> >> R> ----- Original Message ----- 
> >> R> From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
> >> R> To: <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
> >> R> Sent: Sunday, April 15, 2007 6:22 PM
> >> R> Subject: (meteorobs) June Bootids prediction for 1901-2100
> >>
> >>
> >> >> Hello,
> >> >>
> >> >> Prediction for the June Bootids activity in the years 1901-2100 is
> >> >> now available at
> >> >> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html
> >> >>
> >> >> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
> >> >>
> >> >> ---
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> >> >>
> >> >>
> >>
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> >>
>
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