(meteorobs) alpha Lyncids on Dec 21?

[Roberto Haver]

Hi Esko,
I would have to make observations video all the night. 
You know to me to say that velocity they must have the alpha-Lyncids?

Clear skies,
Roberto Haver

> ==========================
> Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2007 10:22:46 +0000
> From: Esko Lyytinen <esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi>
> To: meteorobs at meteorobs.org
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) alpha Lyncids on Dec 21?
> ==========================
> 
> 
> Hello Jan and all,
> 
> Yes, this prediction is based on the one observed outburts of 
> this
> possible shower by Malcolm Currie in 1971 , ( see for example 
> a breaf
> description in P. Jennisken's paper at page 960 ( page 8 in the 
> pdf )
> Meteor Stream Activity IV, in pdf forma at:
> 
> http://aurigid.seti.org/AA1997.pdf
> (In here a possible outburst in 2007 was expected, for the first 
> time. This gives the years 2006 and 2007, as possible but a more 
> deatailed traill-calculation gives the years 2007 an 2008. These 
> were given in the Icarus paper that predicted the Aurigids outburst, 
> don't have the reference here now)
> )
> 
> The observed ( 1971 ) outburst properties were suggestive of 
> a long
> period shower-outburst. The prediction is based on these things: 
> First
> an outburst really happened and secondly it is of long period 
> and
> thirdly on the observed radiant location, and timing also taken 
> taken
> into account.
>  From these assumptions the "course" of the expected on revolution 
> trail
> near the Earth orbit can be calculated and it appears that an 
> ecncounter
> with the Earth would now happen.
> 
> Fortunately this case appears to be less sensitive on the exact 
> location
> of the derived radiant, compared to some other possible cases. 
> An about
> five degree ( possibly ten degree) error in the radiant derived 
> in 1971,
> would not nullify the prediction.
> 
> The average magnitude in 1971 was only +3.47. Now the meteors 
> are not
> expected to be brighter (althoug to some degree dependent on 
> the local
> altitude of the radiant). If the orbital period is aroud 1000 
> years,
> then there should not me much difference compared to 1971, but 
> if it
> was, say only 300 or 400 years, then the meteors now are probably 
> even
> more dim. Unfortunately the Moon will disturb.
> 
> As to the strenght, the maximum ZHR value that Peter derived 
> from the
> 1971 outburts was >200. We don.t know how central (and at what 
> side of
> the Earth orbit) the trail-encounter then was, and if it will 
> now be
> encountere a little more distant or nearby. The best quess is 
> of similar
> strength. If an outburst will now happen, then probably an ouutburst
> will also happen next year and thes together woul  probably help 
> to
> better fix the trail location-course. Already this year observations
> would (hopefully) give a more reliable radiant location. (One 
> would have
> to wait the next after this maybe for 46 years.)
> 
> I would encourage to try to observe this if weather etc permits. 
> But
> don't be dissapointed if nothing is visible. If this was not 
> of long
> period outburst, then this prediction is totally meaningless. 
> If
> anything would happen then good video observatios for the radiant
> location would be valuble and also very precise two station orbits.
> 
> 
> Hope you clear skies etc,
> Esko
> 
> 
> 
> 
> > Message: 1
> > Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007 18:34:14 +0100
> > From: "Jan Verfl" <verfl.meteors at seznam.cz>
> > Subject: (meteorobs) alpha Lyncids on Dec 21?
> > To: "'Global Meteor Observing Forum'" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
> > Message-ID: <mailman.191.1197999260.13329.meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
> > Content-Type: text/plain;    charset="us-ascii"
> >
> > Hello all,
> >
> > in their 2002 article "Meteor outbursts from long-period comet 
> dust
> > trails",
> > Esko Lyytinen and Peter Jenniskens predict a lot of possible
> > "far-comet-type" shower oubursts
> >
> > The point is that one of them is to happen on Dec 21, 03:40 
> UT from a
> > radiant close to the back feet of the Great Bear (but still
> > technically in
> > Lynx, so they call it alpha-Lyncids) with RA 138, DEC +44. 
> For European
> > observers it is a rather favourable timing - for example here 
> in Prag,
> > Czech
> > Republic, the radiant will be almost in zenith, still deep 
> night and the
> > (not far from full) Moon just setting.
> >
> > The article does not give any information about the strenght 
> of the
> > shower,
> > but it is probably because this is much harder to obtain than 
> the timing.
> > After the fantastic success of the Aurigid prediction that 
> was carried
> > out
> > by the same people, I believe there is a strong reason to go 
> out and
> > observe! I thnik that Esko is a meteorobs-member, so he will 
> hopefully
> > correct all the misinformation I may have given...
> >
> > Clear skies,
> >
> > Jan
> >
> >
> >
> 
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