(meteorobs) Re: C/2006 VZ13 LINEAR radiant

[Mikhail Maslov]

RG> From: "Marco Langbroek" <marco.langbroek at wanadoo.nl>

RG> CUT

>> Francisco Ocaña wrote:
>>> Julio Castellano (via CometasObs http://astrosurf.com/cometas-obs/ mail 
>>> list) have noticed that this comet crosses the Earth´s orbits in August 
>>> 07 and Earth pass through this point in May (3 months before or 9 months 
>>> later depending on the year).
>>>
>>> Has anyone the software that calculates the theoretic radiant? I have 
>>> seen outputs from it here in the list! Is it in the net to download? 
>>> Could future passes be more favourable?
>>
>> Based on elements from MPEC 2006-Y62, using the software of Neslusan et 
>> al.:
>>
>>               EQUINOX: 2000.0;       DATA FOR YEAR: 2007
>>  --------------------------------------------------------------------
>>  METH.  ALPHA  DELTA    VG      VH        L     DATE-MAX.    D-DISC.
>>   -Q    104.0   21.1   52.70   42.41    246.0   NOV. 28.8    1.012
>>   -B    149.2   -8.3   49.33   23.21    246.0   NOV. 28.8     .842
>>   Q+    329.4   16.2   65.91   41.85     66.0   MAY  27.8     .004
>>   B+    329.4   16.2   65.91   41.85     66.0   MAY  27.8     .004
>>   P+    329.4   16.2   65.88   41.81     66.0   MAY  27.8     .006
>>  --------------------------------------------------------------------

RG> CUT

>> The current elements put the eccentricity at 1.0. I would rate the chances 
>> for meteors of this comet therefore as low.
>>
>> - Marco
>>
>> -----
>> Dr Marco Langbroek
>> Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)

RG> The perielium of this comet it's at 1.01 U.A., its arg. of perielium at
RG> around 174.°, if it was at 180° the MOID with the Earth
RG> should be 0.01 U.A. (that it's 1,5 milion of Km) but with 174° the
RG> MOID should be biggest of 0.01 U.A., then it's impossible that
RG> there is a meteor shower and as pointed by Marco the eccentricity
RG> it's 1 then this comet has a one time trip in the Solar Sistem.
RG> Best greetings.
RG> Roberto Gorelli


Take into consideradion also that in August the Earth is close to its
aphelion which is at 1.017 AU from the Sun. I.e. its distance to the
Sun is about 1.014-1.015 AU, not exactly 1 AU. This acts in favor of
MOID value.
I also think, that Earth orbit crossing comets with hyperbolic orbits,
like discussed one, can produce meteor activity only if the Earth passes
their node not more than 2-3 weeks prior or after them. So chances of
meteor activity in the late November 2007 from this comet are equal to
zero.

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov