(meteorobs) leonids 2007 predistions

[meteoreye at comcast.net]

>From this month's NAMN notes:

4. A Good Year for Watching Leonids, but...
The moon is our friend this month for watching the Leonids. Whether the
shower will give us much to see remains to be seen. The nodal crossing,
which is the theoretical "annual" peak, is at 2:50 UT on November 18th. The
only enhancement I've been able to find so far is that of Mikhail Maslov and
Dr. Peter Jenniskens, who propose a short peak of ZHRs near 60/Hour at 23:05
UT (Nov 18), which will be during daylight in North America. It will be
visible from Asia, Indonesia and surrounding areas. The nodal crossing
should give us only normal rates of background Leonids ~ 15 an hour, and
even that is not visible from North America, since it occurs before the
radiant has risen. The best locations for that should be in Europe, the
Middle East, and Northern Africa. After what we've seen over the last
decade, it will be a bit of a letdown to see Leonid rates fall back to their
normal levels. It's easy to get spoiled. The moon will be setting near
midnight, leaving the morning hours with dark skies, and highest rate should
occur during the early morning hours of the 18th and 19th. The next
outburst, from Dr. Jenniskens' book "Meteor Showers and their Parent Comets"
is expected in 2009.

Wayne

-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: tell at jas.org.jo 

> HI, 
> 
> can any one tell me what are the prediction of this year leonids. 
> the IMO says the ZHR is around 15, another webiste says it is around 
> 60-70 on 20 something of 18/11. 
> 
> thanks 
> 
> Khaled tell 
> 
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