(meteorobs) leonids 2007 predistions

meteoreye at comcast.net meteoreye at comcast.net
Sat Nov 10 14:19:52 EST 2007


Note the moon will be setting around midnight for the peak, so the hours between midnight and dawn should be moon free.

-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: "Catlin" <cat at catlin.force9.co.uk> 

> Hi Wayne, thanks for re-enforcing my take on this years Leonid display. 
> 
> In England a cold snap will hopefully aid our observations, although you 
> never know as a lot can happen in seven days. 
> 
> Yes we have been spoilt but that's what keeps us marching on - the hope 
> that a 'wow' shower is just around the corner. 
> 
> I sympathise if your views will be compromised this year, but I will 
> keep you and all informed with up to the hour feedback from England next 
> weekend. Sorry - no technical detail - just a rough guide. 
> 
> 
> 
> N.B We are five hours ahead of USA east coast time zones. 
> 
> Clear skies 
> 
> Michael, Leeds England 
> 
> -----Original Message----- 
> From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org 
> [mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org] On Behalf Of 
> meteoreye at comcast.net 
> Sent: 10 November 2007 16:20 
> To: Global Meteor Observing Forum 
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) leonids 2007 predistions 
> 
> >From this month's NAMN notes: 
> 
> 4. A Good Year for Watching Leonids, but... 
> The moon is our friend this month for watching the Leonids. Whether the 
> shower will give us much to see remains to be seen. The nodal crossing, 
> which is the theoretical "annual" peak, is at 2:50 UT on November 18th. 
> The 
> only enhancement I've been able to find so far is that of Mikhail Maslov 
> and 
> Dr. Peter Jenniskens, who propose a short peak of ZHRs near 60/Hour at 
> 23:05 
> UT (Nov 18), which will be during daylight in North America. It will be 
> visible from Asia, Indonesia and surrounding areas. The nodal crossing 
> should give us only normal rates of background Leonids ~ 15 an hour, and 
> even that is not visible from North America, since it occurs before the 
> radiant has risen. The best locations for that should be in Europe, the 
> Middle East, and Northern Africa. After what we've seen over the last 
> decade, it will be a bit of a letdown to see Leonid rates fall back to 
> their 
> normal levels. It's easy to get spoiled. The moon will be setting near 
> midnight, leaving the morning hours with dark skies, and highest rate 
> should 
> occur during the early morning hours of the 18th and 19th. The next 
> outburst, from Dr. Jenniskens' book "Meteor Showers and their Parent 
> Comets" 
> is expected in 2009. 
> 
> Wayne 
> 
> -------------- Original message -------------- 
> From: tell at jas.org.jo 
> 
> > HI, 
> > 
> > can any one tell me what are the prediction of this year leonids. 
> > the IMO says the ZHR is around 15, another webiste says it is around 
> > 60-70 on 20 something of 18/11. 
> > 
> > thanks 
> > 
> > Khaled tell 
> > 
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