(meteorobs) Reminder: Possible Draconid and Finlayid activity

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello,

On 7 October two meteor showers can give some activity enhancements.
The first is Draconid shower, computations show that during 7 Octover it
may produce a very weak activity with ZHR perhaps not higher than
several meteors with low average brightness. Computed moments of two
peaks are 4:40 UT (ZHRex=0.8, Radiant: RA=261.1°, Dec=+47.6°) and
21:10 UT (ZHRex=2.5, Radiant: RA=260.8°, Dec=+49.6°). The first peak
is connected with 1900 and 1907 trails (not a direct encounter) and
the second - with 1887 and 1894 trails (also not a direct encounter).
Really these times are not very reliable, so observations should be
done during the whole day of 7 October.
The second case is much more interesting in my opinion. We have 1926
trail of the comet 15P intersecting the Earth orbit only 1.24 days
prior to the Earth itself. Parameters of trail are not very favorable
in the point of intersection (mostly due to high ejection velocity,
66.55 m/s), but it's still quite dense (for given Vej) - f_M(fMP)=0.722,
regular and relatively young. The computed time of maximum is 3:32 UT
7 October, radiant: RA=255.2°, Dec=-42.9°, meteors should be extremely
slow. Considering regular shape of the trails, this value of maximum
time is to be much more accurate, than in case with Draconids. The
radioobservations in southern hemisphere seem to be most appropriate
tool for observations, as perspectives of visual activity look
doubtful. But still visual results should be very interesting.
The second case of activity from 15P meteor shower is possible on 1
November this year, I'll send a separate message on it later.
As I know, meteors from 15P stream were not apparently observed ever
before. So this is the chance to open the new meteor shower, a
southern twin of the Draconids and a very promising one.

More datails as well as pics, graphs and maps can be seen on
http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov