(meteorobs) Reminder: Possible Draconid and Finlayid activity

[stange34 at sbcglobal.net]

Hello Mikhail.

Was the 1906 passing of Comet 15P at 0.27 AU the reference you are using for 
the close pass in 1926?

Thankyou.
YCSentinel


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
To: <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Sent: 2007/10/05 05:09
Subject: (meteorobs) Reminder: Possible Draconid and Finlayid activity


> Hello,
>
> On 7 October two meteor showers can give some activity enhancements.
> The first is Draconid shower, computations show that during 7 Octover it
> may produce a very weak activity with ZHR perhaps not higher than
> several meteors with low average brightness. Computed moments of two
> peaks are 4:40 UT (ZHRex=0.8, Radiant: RA=261.1°, Dec=+47.6°) and
> 21:10 UT (ZHRex=2.5, Radiant: RA=260.8°, Dec=+49.6°). The first peak
> is connected with 1900 and 1907 trails (not a direct encounter) and
> the second - with 1887 and 1894 trails (also not a direct encounter).
> Really these times are not very reliable, so observations should be
> done during the whole day of 7 October.
> The second case is much more interesting in my opinion. We have 1926
> trail of the comet 15P intersecting the Earth orbit only 1.24 days
> prior to the Earth itself. Parameters of trail are not very favorable
> in the point of intersection (mostly due to high ejection velocity,
> 66.55 m/s), but it's still quite dense (for given Vej) - f_M(fMP)=0.722,
> regular and relatively young. The computed time of maximum is 3:32 UT
> 7 October, radiant: RA=255.2°, Dec=-42.9°, meteors should be extremely
> slow. Considering regular shape of the trails, this value of maximum
> time is to be much more accurate, than in case with Draconids. The
> radioobservations in southern hemisphere seem to be most appropriate
> tool for observations, as perspectives of visual activity look
> doubtful. But still visual results should be very interesting.
> The second case of activity from 15P meteor shower is possible on 1
> November this year, I'll send a separate message on it later.
> As I know, meteors from 15P stream were not apparently observed ever
> before. So this is the chance to open the new meteor shower, a
> southern twin of the Draconids and a very promising one.
>
> More datails as well as pics, graphs and maps can be seen on
> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html
>
> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
>
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