(meteorobs) Reminder: Possible Draconid and Finlayid activity

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello, YCSentinel and all,

No this close passage in 1906 have no relation to possible activity of
Finlayid 1926 trail in 2007. I meant that particles, ejected by the
comet 15P diring the perihelion passage in 1926 with ejection velocity
of 66.55 m/s, in 2007 will cross the Earth's orbit, and the Earth
itself will come to this point of intersection only 1.24 days after
the intersection happens. I conclude that this situation could result
in some kind of activity.

Best regards, Mikhail


ssn> Hello Mikhail.

ssn> Was the 1906 passing of Comet 15P at 0.27 AU the reference you are using for 
ssn> the close pass in 1926?

ssn> Thankyou.
ssn> YCSentinel


ssn> ----- Original Message ----- 
ssn> From: "Mikhail Maslov" <ast3 at ngs.ru>
ssn> To: <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
ssn> Sent: 2007/10/05 05:09
ssn> Subject: (meteorobs) Reminder: Possible Draconid and Finlayid activity


>> Hello,
>>
>> On 7 October two meteor showers can give some activity enhancements.
>> The first is Draconid shower, computations show that during 7 Octover it
>> may produce a very weak activity with ZHR perhaps not higher than
>> several meteors with low average brightness. Computed moments of two
>> peaks are 4:40 UT (ZHRex=0.8, Radiant: RA=261.1°, Dec=+47.6°) and
>> 21:10 UT (ZHRex=2.5, Radiant: RA=260.8°, Dec=+49.6°). The first peak
>> is connected with 1900 and 1907 trails (not a direct encounter) and
>> the second - with 1887 and 1894 trails (also not a direct encounter).
>> Really these times are not very reliable, so observations should be
>> done during the whole day of 7 October.
>> The second case is much more interesting in my opinion. We have 1926
>> trail of the comet 15P intersecting the Earth orbit only 1.24 days
>> prior to the Earth itself. Parameters of trail are not very favorable
>> in the point of intersection (mostly due to high ejection velocity,
>> 66.55 m/s), but it's still quite dense (for given Vej) - f_M(fMP)=0.722,
>> regular and relatively young. The computed time of maximum is 3:32 UT
>> 7 October, radiant: RA=255.2°, Dec=-42.9°, meteors should be extremely
>> slow. Considering regular shape of the trails, this value of maximum
>> time is to be much more accurate, than in case with Draconids. The
>> radioobservations in southern hemisphere seem to be most appropriate
>> tool for observations, as perspectives of visual activity look
>> doubtful. But still visual results should be very interesting.
>> The second case of activity from 15P meteor shower is possible on 1
>> November this year, I'll send a separate message on it later.
>> As I know, meteors from 15P stream were not apparently observed ever
>> before. So this is the chance to open the new meteor shower, a
>> southern twin of the Draconids and a very promising one.
>>
>> More datails as well as pics, graphs and maps can be seen on
>> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html
>>
>> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
>>
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