(meteorobs) IAU talks of "upwards of an incredible 500 shooting stars per hour" for Leo 2009

[Daniel Fischer]

In a press release advertising the International Year of Astronomy
just out at http://www.iau.org/public_press/news/release/iau0810
we read: "A strong shower of Leonid meteors is also expected in
mid-November 2009, with forecasters predicting upwards of an
incredible 500 shooting stars per hour." This prediction is well
known to MeteorObs readers, of course, as might be its apparent
confirmation by NASA theorists (the actual quote seems to come
from http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/04dec_leonids2009.htm -
has an *independent* paper been published anywhere?) - and its
non-confirmation by Mikhail Maslov on this list on Nov. 26 in
http://lists.meteorobs.org/pipermail/meteorobs/2008-November/009347.html
where he sees a typical-Perseids-like outburst in 2009 at best.

In materials for the IYA addressing the public at large I have
reluctantly included the possibility of a nice Leonids outburst
at sub-storm level, making certain to avoid sensationalist wording
as I see it now in the IAU Release ("incredible ..."). Given the
rarity of major celestial events in 2009, the possible Leonids
outburst as well an an equally uncertain show by comet Lulin are
certainly of interest in IYA publicity, but I really wonder *what*
we should tell the public about the Leonids 2009 at the current
state of knowledge. And would you theorists out there please
make your models converge soon ... :-)

Daniel Fischer
IYA German Nat'l Committee