(meteorobs) IAU talks of "upwards of an incredible 500, shooting stars per hour" for Leo 2009

[Esko Lyytinen]

You can see the Leonids 2009 predictions, that I earlier made with 
Markku Nissinen, in two graphs at:
http://lyytinen.name/esko/1466to2009.gif
http://lyytinen.name/esko/1533to2009.gif
 
According to this, the maxima from these two trails would be at about 
the same time, summing up to about ZHR 120.

Esko Lyytinen

> Date: Mon, 29 Dec 2008 13:14:35 +0100
> From: Daniel Fischer
> Subject: (meteorobs) IAU talks of "upwards of an incredible 500
> 	shooting stars per hour" for Leo 2009
> To: meteorobs at meteorobs.org
> Message-ID: <20081229121435.442E41EA3D9 at astro.uni-bonn.de>
>
> In a press release advertising the International Year of Astronomy
> just out at http://www.iau.org/public_press/news/release/iau0810
> we read: "A strong shower of Leonid meteors is also expected in
> mid-November 2009, with forecasters predicting upwards of an
> incredible 500 shooting stars per hour." This prediction is well
> known to MeteorObs readers, of course, as might be its apparent
> confirmation by NASA theorists (the actual quote seems to come
> from http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/04dec_leonids2009.htm -
> has an *independent* paper been published anywhere?) - and its
> non-confirmation by Mikhail Maslov on this list on Nov. 26 in
> http://lists.meteorobs.org/pipermail/meteorobs/2008-November/009347.html
> where he sees a typical-Perseids-like outburst in 2009 at best.
>
> In materials for the IYA addressing the public at large I have
> reluctantly included the possibility of a nice Leonids outburst
> at sub-storm level, making certain to avoid sensationalist wording
> as I see it now in the IAU Release ("incredible ..."). Given the
> rarity of major celestial events in 2009, the possible Leonids
> outburst as well an an equally uncertain show by comet Lulin are
> certainly of interest in IYA publicity, but I really wonder *what*
> we should tell the public about the Leonids 2009 at the current
> state of knowledge. And would you theorists out there please
> make your models converge soon ... :-)
>
> Daniel Fischer
> IYA German Nat'l Committee
>