(meteorobs) IMO 2009 Calendar predicts Leonids storm

[Rainer Arlt]

Daniel Fischer wrioe:
> snail mail today - talks in its introduction about "the Leonids,
> which could yield ZHRs in the 100+ category, maybe (if we are very
> fortunate) bordering on near-storm levels again!" And on page 20 we
> learn about "the chance of a possible meteor storm" around 21:45-50 UTC
> on 17 Nov. 2009, which would be best seen - like in 2001 - in East
> Asia. Unfortunately the Shower Calendar doesn't provide any detailled
> references, so ADS and Google had to help and yielded the following hits:
> 
> http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005A%26A...439..761V
>  - "The next storm is expected in 2034." (Can't access full paper from home)
> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/1901-2100eng/Leo2001-2010eng.html
>  - ZHRs up to 65 only in 2009 (but 115 this year)
> http://lists.meteorobs.org/pipermail/meteorobs/2005-March/002088.html
>  - ZHRs up to 241 in 2009 (and, gasp, 435 this year)
> http://lists.meteorobs.org/pipermail/meteorobs/2005-February/002056.html
>  - ZHR of 573 in 2009
> http://www.arm.ac.uk/leonid
>  - nothing whatsoever for the Leonids beyond 2007
> 
> Unless it's stated in the A&A paper (but not in its abstract) I thus
> couldn't find any prediction of "a rate perhaps in the 1000-1500 range
> briefly" that the Shower Calendar claims to exist: Where did that figure
> come from - and is there any consensus in the community about the 'likely'
> Leo 2009 experience and the probabilities of outbursts up to storm level
> (if you call a EZHR of 1000 that)? It would be especially important to
> know whether those models that predict large outbursts successfully
> postdict the Leonid storms of the past 10 years. And - important! -
> whether they are prone to false positives in this regard or not.

The highest numbers of ~950 + ~600 giving 1000-1500 in 2009 are
from Jeremie Vaubaillon. This is from  personal communication
of Jeremie with Alastair McBeath, the author of the calendar. 
Jeremie's web page does give a high concentration but no quan-
titative results. We need to get Jeremie to write these results 
(as the ones for the 2009 Perseids by the way) in a paper ;-)


Best wishes,
Rainer