(meteorobs) Statistical significance of the Taurid fireball enhancement 2008

[Geert Barentsen]

Hi all,

I did a quick computation of the population index r using the data
submitted to IMO so far, using the method described by Rainer Arlt in
2003 ( http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003JIMO...31...77A ).

For 2008 I find r=2.4 for NTA (based on 342 meteors) and r=2.3 for STA
(based on 370 meteors). For 2007, a "normal year", I find similar
values (both r=2.4). These values agree with the average value given
in the IMO shower calendar (r=2.3).

For 2005, a "swarm year", Audrius Dubietis and Rainer Arlt found r=1.9
(based on 978 meteors) and enhanced ZHRs up to 15. (Their results are
published in WGN: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JIMO...34....3D ).

I would conclude that the visual data does not show evidence of a
swarm year yet. This is not surprising; the distance from the swarm is
a lot bigger now than in 2005 (see David Asher's predictions:
http://www.arm.ac.uk/~dja/taurid/swarmyears.html ). Nevertheless --
keep observing people!

The data for these calculations can be downloaded from the bottom of
the ZHR pages (in spreadsheet-readable CSV-format). I strongly
encourage anyone to verify whatever I write or put on the ZHR pages.

Best wishes,
Geert



2008/11/11 Daniel Fischer <dfischer at astro.uni-bonn.de>:
> Numerous reports on astronomy websites and even mainstream media
> have claimed in recent days that the number of Taurids seen this
> year is higher than "usual". While www.imo.net has ZHR profiles
> for both Taurid streams and all the individual observers' reports,
> I haven't seen an "obvious" graphical representation of the
> average brightness distribution, esp. compared to other years.
> Or an analysis concluding by how much the distribution is different.
> Thus the level of confirmation of the "swarm year" hypothesis is
> not clear to me.
>
> Daniel
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