(meteorobs) What do the 2008 Leonids tell us about 2009?

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hello,
In a short, I suggest that our chances to see an outburst 
in 2009 have greatly risen after success with 1466 trail 
in 2008.
In 2009 we'll have principally the same situation, as in 
2008: the Earth encounters oldish fragmented Leonid 
trails. It was 1466 trail in 2008 and will be 1466 and 
1533 trails (mailnly) in 2009.
The charactericstics of encountered 1466 and 1533 trails 
in 2008 and 2009 are the following, according to my 
                   computations:

Leonids 2008
Trail: 1466
Revlutions: 16
rD-rE: -0.00106 AU
Ejection velocity: 8.57 m/s
fM(fMD): -0.395
Max. time: 17.11.2008 0:22 UT
ZHRex: 115 (150 combined with background)

Leonids 2009
Trail: 1466 several encounters, characteristics of the 
most prominent are given)
Revlutions: 16
rD-rE: -0.00076 AU
Ejection velocity: 10.11 m/s
fM(fMD): 0.081
Max. time: 17.11.2009 20:53 UT
ZHRex: ~50 (combined with other fragments of 1466 trail)

Trail: 1533 several encounters, characteristics of the 
most prominent are given)
Revlutions: 16
rD-rE: 0.00044 AU
Ejection velocity: 10.68 m/s
fM(fMD): -0.072
Max. time: 17.11.2009 21:55 UT
ZHRex: ~85 (combined with other fragments of 1533 trail)

So, I'm much less optimistic in expected ZHR rates. 1466 
and 1533 trails are expected to give a combined outburst 
with maximum close to 22 UT (or an hour later, as follows 
from observations of Leonids 2008). Multiple submaximas 
are likely. Overall ZHR rates from these trails and from 
background are expected to reach ~150-160. Meteors should 
be quite bright, but fainter than in 2008.

Best regards, Mikhail
 
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