(meteorobs) Orionids 2008

[Mikiya Sato]

Dear all,

I am Mikiya.
I show my prediction of Orionids 2008.

       Peak (UT)     S.Long.  D-R(AU) Ej.V(m/s) fM
-1265  Oct.19 02:13  205.946  -0.0094  +20.11  0.0062
-1265  Oct.19 06:32  206.125  -0.0081  +19.82  0.0069
-1265  Oct.19 08:08  206.191  -0.0074  +19.70  0.0026

This year, -1265 trail will approach the Earth.
But the distance (D-R) is a little far, about 0.007 - 0.009 AU.
So, I think that the expected peak rate is a little less than
 the late in 2006 and 2007, but it will be uncertain.

And, the peak time is also uncertain because of the same reason
(far distance).
Anyway, predicted peak is a little earlier than the ordinary year.
So, please pay attention to the activity of Orionids from early day;
for example, Oct 18.

>Hello list,
>
>Sato and Watanabe's paper is available at 
>http://pasj.asj.or.jp/v59/n4/590401/590401.pdf
>
>It is a pity that there are no exact predictions ( ie night 22/23 Oct) 
>but there are several trails so it must be 2 or 3 days long as in 2006 
>and 2007. Is there any more information?

In 2006 and 2007, the high activity was observed for 2 or 4 days
 because 2 or 3 kind of trails approached the Earth in these years.
This year, only -1265 trail will approach, so I think that the peak is not
 so long.
If the peak time also continue in this year,
 old trails which I cannot calculate might cause it.

Best regards,

Mikiya Sato
Mikiya.Sato at nao.ac.jp
mail at kaicho.net