(meteorobs) Orionids 2008

[Shy Halatzi]

Thank you Mikiya, Rainer, Francisco.
Shy

2008/9/11 Mikiya Sato <mail at kaicho.net>

> Dear all,
>
> I am Mikiya.
> I show my prediction of Orionids 2008.
>
>       Peak (UT)     S.Long.  D-R(AU) Ej.V(m/s) fM
> -1265  Oct.19 02:13  205.946  -0.0094  +20.11  0.0062
> -1265  Oct.19 06:32  206.125  -0.0081  +19.82  0.0069
> -1265  Oct.19 08:08  206.191  -0.0074  +19.70  0.0026
>
> This year, -1265 trail will approach the Earth.
> But the distance (D-R) is a little far, about 0.007 - 0.009 AU.
> So, I think that the expected peak rate is a little less than
>  the late in 2006 and 2007, but it will be uncertain.
>
> And, the peak time is also uncertain because of the same reason
> (far distance).
> Anyway, predicted peak is a little earlier than the ordinary year.
> So, please pay attention to the activity of Orionids from early day;
> for example, Oct 18.
>
> >Hello list,
> >
> >Sato and Watanabe's paper is available at
> >http://pasj.asj.or.jp/v59/n4/590401/590401.pdf
> >
> >It is a pity that there are no exact predictions ( ie night 22/23 Oct)
> >but there are several trails so it must be 2 or 3 days long as in 2006
> >and 2007. Is there any more information?
>
> In 2006 and 2007, the high activity was observed for 2 or 4 days
>  because 2 or 3 kind of trails approached the Earth in these years.
> This year, only -1265 trail will approach, so I think that the peak is not
>  so long.
> If the peak time also continue in this year,
>  old trails which I cannot calculate might cause it.
>
> Best regards,
>
> Mikiya Sato
> Mikiya.Sato at nao.ac.jp
> mail at kaicho.net
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-- 
שי חלצי Shy Halatzi
חבר ועד האגודה הישראלית לאסטרונומיה
Israeli Astronomical Association Board Member
054-4872884 (from overseas: +972-54-4872884)
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