(meteorobs) Perseids Still Strong

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 8/13/2009 11:59:07 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
cat at catlin.force9.co.uk writes:
 
Well done Joe - can you tell me of the prospects for the Kappa  Cygnids
in Europe in the next few days please?

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I haven't seen any specific projections for this year's Kappa Cygnid  
shower. In May 2008, 
an interest article about this meteor display appeared at the  SPACE.com
site:  _http://www.space.com/searchforlife/080529-seti-kappa-cygnids.html_ 
(http://www.space.com/searchforlife/080529-seti-kappa-cygnids.html) 
 
Certainly, the waning phase of the Moon favor the Kappa Cygnids this year. 
 
Getting back to the Perseids, I actually "red flagged" a possible outburst  
on August 13
at around 6h UT here on meteorobs a month ago.  Here is the original  
message:
 
In a message dated 7/12/2009 10:22:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
Mikhail Maslov wrote:

The Perseids activity prediction for 2009 and  2010 is available here:
_http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html._ 
(http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.) 
In  short: high Perseid activity (up to ZHR=200) is expected in 2009, a
bit  hightened activity (ZHR of 110-120) is likely in  2010.

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This  is all rather interesting, because Mikhail's 2009 Perseid forecast
yields a  higher ZHR compared to his 2009 Leonid forecast!

Last year as many of you  recall, an outburst of Leonid meteors was
successfully forecast by Jeremie  Vaubaillon (IMCCE/Caltech). That forecast
received widespread recognition,  but Mikhail also anticipated the same 
outburst
(though it was not as widely  publicized as Jeremie's was).

See: _http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/Leonids2008eng.html_ 
(http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/Leonids2008eng.html) 

This  year, Jeremie is forecasting another outburst . . . suggesting a ZHR
as high  as ~500, while Mikhail is more conservative and forecasts a ZHR 
closer to  130-140.
It will thus be interesting to see which forecast proves to be  more
correct!

Regarding the Perseids . . . Jeremie's depiction for  2009 seems to show
notable activity on August 12 between roughly 0 and  22-hours UT, followed 
by a
short break, then another, much shorter round of  activity occurring near 
06h UT 
on August 13.

See: 
http://www.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Perseids/BIN-tout\
/Noeuds-Earth2009.jpg

So  perhaps for North Americans, it will be worth watching this year's
Perseids  late on the nights of both August 11 and 12 . . . will those on 
the US East  Coast
note any brief surge of activity around 2 a.m. EDT on August  13?

Mikhail points to a close encounter with a trail of debris ejected  from the
parent comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle in 1610 at 8:07 UT on August  12.

In all, some interesting nights for meteor observers lie ahead!
--  joe rao

PS I have tried E-mailing Jeremie in recent weeks but have not  gotten any
response; Anyone know if he is on a holiday?