(meteorobs) Outburst at 6h UT August 13 >>>> Re: Perseids Still Strong

[Pierre Martin]

Hello Joe,

Observing under excellent clear sky conditions on August 13, I can  
confirm that there was a strong surge of Perseids at around 6h UT.   
I'm just decoding the tape, and *several* Perseids every minute were  
seen around that time, and this went on for several minutes!  My guess  
is that the ZHR must have reached a very strong level, maybe 200.

I had taken note of your original message, mentioned it during my  
Perseids talk during a recent RASC meeting, and alerted my local  
astronomy clubs of the possible outburst.

It really made for an impressive night!!!  Even some of my non-meteor  
observers friends were impressed at the rates around 6h UT on August  
13.  What I find puzzling is why the IMO's visual quicklook page  
doesn't yet reveal the feature.  It could be that there isn't much  
data available yet... hopefully more data will come in and show what  
truly happened.  I hope to contribute mine soon!

Pierre Martin
Ottawa, Ontario



On 13-Aug-09, at 8:25 PM, Skywayinc at aol.com wrote:

>
>
>
> In a message dated 8/13/2009 11:59:07 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> cat at catlin.force9.co.uk writes:
>
> Well done Joe - can you tell me of the prospects for the Kappa   
> Cygnids
> in Europe in the next few days please?
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> I haven't seen any specific projections for this year's Kappa Cygnid
> shower. In May 2008,
> an interest article about this meteor display appeared at the   
> SPACE.com
> site:  _http://www.space.com/searchforlife/080529-seti-kappa-cygnids.html_
> (http://www.space.com/searchforlife/080529-seti-kappa-cygnids.html)
>
> Certainly, the waning phase of the Moon favor the Kappa Cygnids this  
> year.
>
> Getting back to the Perseids, I actually "red flagged" a possible  
> outburst
> on August 13
> at around 6h UT here on meteorobs a month ago.  Here is the original
> message:
>
> In a message dated 7/12/2009 10:22:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> Mikhail Maslov wrote:
>
> The Perseids activity prediction for 2009 and  2010 is available here:
> _http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html._
> (http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.)
> In  short: high Perseid activity (up to ZHR=200) is expected in  
> 2009, a
> bit  hightened activity (ZHR of 110-120) is likely in  2010.
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> This  is all rather interesting, because Mikhail's 2009 Perseid  
> forecast
> yields a  higher ZHR compared to his 2009 Leonid forecast!
>
> Last year as many of you  recall, an outburst of Leonid meteors was
> successfully forecast by Jeremie  Vaubaillon (IMCCE/Caltech). That  
> forecast
> received widespread recognition,  but Mikhail also anticipated the  
> same
> outburst
> (though it was not as widely  publicized as Jeremie's was).
>
> See: _http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/Leonids2008eng.html_
> (http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/Leonids2008eng.html)
>
> This  year, Jeremie is forecasting another outburst . . . suggesting  
> a ZHR
> as high  as ~500, while Mikhail is more conservative and forecasts a  
> ZHR
> closer to  130-140.
> It will thus be interesting to see which forecast proves to be  more
> correct!
>
> Regarding the Perseids . . . Jeremie's depiction for  2009 seems to  
> show
> notable activity on August 12 between roughly 0 and  22-hours UT,  
> followed
> by a
> short break, then another, much shorter round of  activity occurring  
> near
> 06h UT
> on August 13.
>
> See:
> http://www.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Perseids/BIN-tout 
> \
> /Noeuds-Earth2009.jpg
>
> So  perhaps for North Americans, it will be worth watching this year's
> Perseids  late on the nights of both August 11 and 12 . . . will  
> those on
> the US East  Coast
> note any brief surge of activity around 2 a.m. EDT on August  13?
>
> Mikhail points to a close encounter with a trail of debris ejected   
> from the
> parent comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle in 1610 at 8:07 UT on August  12.
>
> In all, some interesting nights for meteor observers lie ahead!
> --  joe rao
>
> PS I have tried E-mailing Jeremie in recent weeks but have not   
> gotten any
> response; Anyone know if he is on a holiday?
>
>
>
>
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