(meteorobs) Expect some debris over the next few years...

Marco Langbroek marco.langbroek at wanadoo.nl
Thu Feb 12 05:39:45 EST 2009


Leo S schreef:
> Wouldn't at least a few pieces have been shot almost directly downward?
> 
> I would have expected there to be a constant 'trickle' (albeit small to 
> start off with), gradually increasing with time, and with some 
> re-entries having already occurred?
> 
> Whatever the energy involved in this cosmic fender-bender, it must have 
> been quite a bang!
> 
> Leo
> 
> Alister wrote:
>> Of course pieces exploding "backwards" against orbital motion will drop 
>> faster, but that's got to be pretty small compared to orbital velocity. 

This collision happened at about the same orbital altitude as the Chinese asat 
test on Fengyun 1C. So the general scenario of debris scatter will be similar. A 
detailed analysis of the Fengyun 1C situation is given here:
http://www.celestrak.com/events/asat.asp

The collision occurred with both sats moving at about 7.5 km/s under an 83.5 
degree angle.

What is amazing in all this is that apparently the people at the Iridium 
Consortium have been sleeping. Both the Kosmos and the Iridium are well-tracked 
objects, so the collision danger really should have been clear beforehand, 
allowing mitigation procedures (a safety manoeuvre) by the Iridium. All that 
apparently did not happen!

- Marco

-----
Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands.
e-mail: sattrackcam at wanadoo.nl

Cospar 4353 (Leiden):   52.15412 N, 4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL
Cospar 4354 (De Wilck): 52.11685 N, 4.56016 E (WGS84), -2 m ASL
SatTrackCam: http://home.wanadoo.nl/marco.langbroek/satcam.html
Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
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