(meteorobs) Expect some debris over the next few years...

Chris Peterson clp at alumni.caltech.edu
Thu Feb 12 13:43:01 EST 2009


Hi Marco-

While the moderate altitude means that debris will persist for decades, it 
doesn't mean we can't expect decays. The STK analysis of the FENGYUN 
incident, if applied to this collision, would suggest that we can expect 
around 10kg of material per year for the next decade or so, falling off 
somewhat after that. Presumably most of the debris is small, but 
sub-kilogram material reentering at low velocity (<8 km/s) is perfectly 
capable of producing nice fireballs. And the rate can be expected to 
increase somewhat as we approach solar max, and the effects of drag become 
greater.

Chris

*****************************************
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Marco Langbroek" <marco.langbroek at wanadoo.nl>
To: "Global Meteor Observing Forum" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Sent: Wednesday, February 11, 2009 5:08 PM
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Expect some debris over the next few years...


> As this happened at 788 km (490 mile) altitude, the debris will remain in 
> orbit
> for a very long time. No decays to be expected from this collision 
> therefore.
>
> The collision was between Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 and happened at 16:56 
> UTC
> (11 Feb), near 98.156 E, 72.462 N, 788.58 km altitude.
>
> - Marco




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