(meteorobs) Prediction for the Perseids in 2009 and 2010

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 7/12/2009 10:22:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
ast3 at ngs.ru writes:
 
The Perseids  activity prediction for 2009 and 2010 is available  here:
http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.
In  short: high Perseid activity (up to ZHR=200) is expected in 2009, a
bit  hightened activity (ZHR of 110-120) is likely in 2010.
 
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This is all rather interesting, because Mikhail's 2009 Perseid  forecast 
yields a higher ZHR 
compared to his 2009 Leonid forecast!  
 
Last year as many of you recall, an outburst of Leonid meteors  was 
successfully forecast by Jeremie Vaubaillon (IMCCE/Caltech).   That forecast 
received widespread recognition, but Mikhail also anticipated  the same outburst 
(though it was not as widely publicized as Jeremie's  was).
 
See: _http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/Leonids2008eng.html_ 
(http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/Leonids2008eng.html) 
 
This year, Jeremie is forecasting another outburst . . . suggesting a ZHR  
as high as ~500,
while Mikhail is more conservative and forecasts a ZHR closer to  130-140.  
It will thus be interesting to see which forecast proves to be more  
correct!
 
Regarding the Perseids . . . Jeremie's depiction for 2009 seems to show  
notable 
activity on August 12 between roughly 0 and 22-hours UT, followed by a  
short break, then
another, much shorter round of activity occurring near 06h UT on August  13.
 
See: 
_http://www.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Perseids/BIN-tout/Noeuds-Earth2009.jpg_ 
(http://www.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Perseids/BIN-tout/Noeuds-Earth2009.jpg) 
 
So perhaps for North Americans, it will be worth watching this year's  
Perseids late on
the nights of both August 11 and 12 . . . will those on the US East Coast  
note any brief
surge of activity around 2 a.m. EDT on August 13?  
 
Mikhail points to a close encounter with a trail of debris ejected from the 
 parent comet
109P/Swift-Tuttle in 1610 at 8:07 UT on August 12.
 
In all, some interesting nights for meteor observers lie ahead!
-- joe rao
 
PS  I have tried E-mailing Jeremie in recent weeks but have not gotten  any 
response; 
      Anyone know if he is on a holiday?
 
 
 
 
 
 



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