(meteorobs) Prediction for the June Bootids in 2009 and 2010

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 5/23/2009 10:07:00 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
ast3 at ngs.ru writes: 
 

"It is very interesting case, of course, especially if the  prediction
turns to be correct and I wish you to witness this event whatever  it
would be. Don't forget also about much closer year 2022 when a storm
of  the comet 73P shower (tau-Herculids) is expected by many
researchers. ZHR of  thousands or even tens of thousands meteors is quite 
possible, also
with high  average brightness."

 
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Last fall, Mikhail, myself and several other researchers discussed  the 
prospects
of a tau-Herculid storm in 2022 (offline from meteorobs). 
 
Luthen / Wiegert / Horii wrote papers detailing future  prospects. The 
calculations by 
Luethen and Horii were independent confirmation of each other - the  
ejection velocity, 
miss distance and timing are all in quite precise agreement;  the split pf 
73P in 1995 is extra
reason to believe there are plenty of  meteoroids out there.


Lyytinen calculated that the rD comes quite close to rE, within  about 
0.0002 AU. The calculated 
trail passes a little bit inside the Earth  orbit on 2022 May 31 a little 
before 5h UT. 


Mikhail did some computations, noting that If the ejection velocity was 
positive with the same module and the trail was "usual", i.e. without  
particles 
ejected due to the comet's break up, he would expect a very short  outburst 
with ZHR of 3000-4000 (in rough approximation). Considering the fact the  
Vej is 
negative and the comet 73P has a very short period, he then  suggested 
decreasing
the ZHR by 10, to 300-400 meteors. Considering the fact, however, that  
because of 
73P's disruption the amount of ejected particles should be at least one  
order higher than
usual and with higher modules of Vej.  Thus, he  returned to a scenario of 
a ZHR 
of 3000-4000 as a "conservative estimation" of the outburst  intensity.


The only fly in the ointment here is the simulation that was run by Jeremie 
 Vaubaillion, 
which fails to confirm any of this; the ejected meteoroids apparently are  
not far enough 
in front of the comet to produce a significant meteor shower at  Earth!  
 
Mikiya Sato (NAOJ) also finds that the particles to be ejected are not too  
far in front 
of the nucleus, which is what is shown by Jeremie's simulation. 
 
Jeremie later wrote: "Sorry I feel like the party downer but we have to be  
extra careful of 
the arguments otherwise the conclusions that we draw are  wrong."  
 
That is pretty much where the discussion ended.  So while it would  appear 
that 
we "may" be looking at an outburst from the splitting of 73P in 2022, there 
 are some 
who have cast some doubts about all this.
 
:(
 
I myself had written about the prospects of a 2022 storm a few years ago in 
 "Night Sky,"
a sister publication of S&T which has since folded. 

-- joe rao



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