(meteorobs) REMINDER: *POSSIBLE* METEOR OUTBURST TONIGHT

Pierre Martin pmartin at teksavvy.com
Fri Aug 13 18:07:45 EDT 2010


Although the reliability of this prediction is said to be much lower,  
this warrants special attention to confirm whether or not an activity  
occurs...  Forwarded messages below:

- Pierre



=====================================

Predictions of chi-Kapricornids activity (parent comet 45P\Honda-Mrkos- 
Pajdusakova for 2010, 2011 and 2012 are uploaded to
http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.

Around 3:30 UT on 14 August 2010 an outburst with ZHRex=20-30 is  
possible, high meteor brightness. The best place for observation would  
be South America. Reliability of this prediction is much lower than  
say for the Perseids or Leonids, as there weren't any apparent 45P-ids  
outbursts in the past.

This prediction confirms the results obtained earlier for this case by  
Sergey Shanov (Russia) and Mikiya Sato(Japan).

Best regards, Mikhail Maslov


=====================================


My outcomes of calculations on a comet 45P can be seen here:

Date (UT)            l  Trail delta_r V m/s  alpha delta Vg km/s
1990 August   18,7 145,6 1933  0,0017 -18,94 323,9 -12,6 22,53
2000 August   12,4 140,0 1948  0,0084  -7,02 324,9 -11,1 25,80
2000 August   12,6 140,2 1938  0,0042  -7,97 325,0 -10,9 25,77
2005 August   12,6 139,9 1959  0,0017  -9,11 325,2 -11,1 25,85
2005 August   12,7 140,0 1954  0,0055  -8,49 325,1 -11,0 25,84
2010 August   14,1 141,1 1964  0,0023 -11,22 325,7 -10,7 25,63
2015 August   14,5 141,2 1969  0,0014 -13,60 325,9 -10,6 25,63
2016 February 22,9 333,5 1938  0,0031  -8,42 333,6 -14,0 25,49
2020 August    8,2 135,8 1969  0,0083 -15,31 323,6 -11,5 27,22
2022 August   16,8 143,6 1933  0,0074  +8,29 325,4 -11,5 24,19
2022 August   16,9 143,7 1969  0,0072  +4,64 325,3 -11,5 24,14
2022 August   16,9 143,7 1974  0,0055  +6,55 325,3 -11,5 24,16
2022 August   17,0 143,8 1980  0,0040  +9,67 325,5 -11,4 24,20
2025 August    8,5 135,9 1948  0,0033 -11,25 323,6 -11,2 27,26

It is direct (not vertical) collisions. The direct collisions do not  
show major meteor activity.

Sergey


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