(meteorobs) REMINDER: *POSSIBLE* METEOR OUTBURST TONIGHT

[Pierre Martin]

Just curious if anyone else managed to see any Chi Capricornids  
activity?  I was out last night for a few hours, with my field of view  
facing south.  Although this possible radiant lurked low near my  
southern horizon, I was hoping that any signs of activity would  
manifest itself with a few slow moving long pathed meteors.  I did  
plot three meteors of average or faint brightness out of Capricornus,  
but these could easily be explained by the presence of the antihelion  
radiant or sporadic chance alignments.  I can say that I saw no  
obvious activity near the predicted time or the few hours that followed.

Not too surprisingly, the Perseids provided the majority of the  
activity seen, even though the radiant was well away from my field of  
view.  This included a long one in the north-west with a mag -3  
terminal flash.

Clear skies,

Pierre Martin
Ottawa, Ontario



On 13-Aug-10, at 6:07 PM, Pierre Martin wrote:

> Although the reliability of this prediction is said to be much lower,
> this warrants special attention to confirm whether or not an activity
> occurs...  Forwarded messages below:
>
> - Pierre
>
>
>
> =====================================
>
> Predictions of chi-Kapricornids activity (parent comet 45P\Honda- 
> Mrkos-
> Pajdusakova for 2010, 2011 and 2012 are uploaded to
> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.
>
> Around 3:30 UT on 14 August 2010 an outburst with ZHRex=20-30 is
> possible, high meteor brightness. The best place for observation would
> be South America. Reliability of this prediction is much lower than
> say for the Perseids or Leonids, as there weren't any apparent 45P-ids
> outbursts in the past.
>
> This prediction confirms the results obtained earlier for this case by
> Sergey Shanov (Russia) and Mikiya Sato(Japan).
>
> Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
>
>
> =====================================
>
>
> My outcomes of calculations on a comet 45P can be seen here:
>
> Date (UT)            l  Trail delta_r V m/s  alpha delta Vg km/s
> 1990 August   18,7 145,6 1933  0,0017 -18,94 323,9 -12,6 22,53
> 2000 August   12,4 140,0 1948  0,0084  -7,02 324,9 -11,1 25,80
> 2000 August   12,6 140,2 1938  0,0042  -7,97 325,0 -10,9 25,77
> 2005 August   12,6 139,9 1959  0,0017  -9,11 325,2 -11,1 25,85
> 2005 August   12,7 140,0 1954  0,0055  -8,49 325,1 -11,0 25,84
> 2010 August   14,1 141,1 1964  0,0023 -11,22 325,7 -10,7 25,63
> 2015 August   14,5 141,2 1969  0,0014 -13,60 325,9 -10,6 25,63
> 2016 February 22,9 333,5 1938  0,0031  -8,42 333,6 -14,0 25,49
> 2020 August    8,2 135,8 1969  0,0083 -15,31 323,6 -11,5 27,22
> 2022 August   16,8 143,6 1933  0,0074  +8,29 325,4 -11,5 24,19
> 2022 August   16,9 143,7 1969  0,0072  +4,64 325,3 -11,5 24,14
> 2022 August   16,9 143,7 1974  0,0055  +6,55 325,3 -11,5 24,16
> 2022 August   17,0 143,8 1980  0,0040  +9,67 325,5 -11,4 24,20
> 2025 August    8,5 135,9 1948  0,0033 -11,25 323,6 -11,2 27,26
>
> It is direct (not vertical) collisions. The direct collisions do not
> show major meteor activity.
>
> Sergey
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