(meteorobs) REMINDER: *POSSIBLE* METEOR OUTBURST TONIGHT

[Pat]

I watched the Capricorn area on Aug 14th 03:10 to 03:45 UT from NW fort worth. I saw 3 Chi Capricornids and one SPO. 3:12, 3:20 and 3:21.
They went in 3 different directions, but seemed to trace back to an area just between and below the top two stars. The limiting magnitude was 4, maybe even 3.

--- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Pierre Martin <pmartin at ...> wrote:
>
> Just curious if anyone else managed to see any Chi Capricornids  
> activity?  I was out last night for a few hours, with my field of view  
> facing south.  Although this possible radiant lurked low near my  
> southern horizon, I was hoping that any signs of activity would  
> manifest itself with a few slow moving long pathed meteors.  I did  
> plot three meteors of average or faint brightness out of Capricornus,  
> but these could easily be explained by the presence of the antihelion  
> radiant or sporadic chance alignments.  I can say that I saw no  
> obvious activity near the predicted time or the few hours that followed.
> 
> Not too surprisingly, the Perseids provided the majority of the  
> activity seen, even though the radiant was well away from my field of  
> view.  This included a long one in the north-west with a mag -3  
> terminal flash.
> 
> Clear skies,
> 
> Pierre Martin
> Ottawa, Ontario
> 
> 
> 
> On 13-Aug-10, at 6:07 PM, Pierre Martin wrote:
> 
> > Although the reliability of this prediction is said to be much lower,
> > this warrants special attention to confirm whether or not an activity
> > occurs...  Forwarded messages below:
> >
> > - Pierre
> >
> >
> >
> > =====================================
> >
> > Predictions of chi-Kapricornids activity (parent comet 45P\Honda- 
> > Mrkos-
> > Pajdusakova for 2010, 2011 and 2012 are uploaded to
> > http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.
> >
> > Around 3:30 UT on 14 August 2010 an outburst with ZHRex=20-30 is
> > possible, high meteor brightness. The best place for observation would
> > be South America. Reliability of this prediction is much lower than
> > say for the Perseids or Leonids, as there weren't any apparent 45P-ids
> > outbursts in the past.
> >
> > This prediction confirms the results obtained earlier for this case by
> > Sergey Shanov (Russia) and Mikiya Sato(Japan).
> >
> > Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
> >
> >
> > =====================================
> >
> >
> > My outcomes of calculations on a comet 45P can be seen here:
> >
> > Date (UT)            l  Trail delta_r V m/s  alpha delta Vg km/s
> > 1990 August   18,7 145,6 1933  0,0017 -18,94 323,9 -12,6 22,53
> > 2000 August   12,4 140,0 1948  0,0084  -7,02 324,9 -11,1 25,80
> > 2000 August   12,6 140,2 1938  0,0042  -7,97 325,0 -10,9 25,77
> > 2005 August   12,6 139,9 1959  0,0017  -9,11 325,2 -11,1 25,85
> > 2005 August   12,7 140,0 1954  0,0055  -8,49 325,1 -11,0 25,84
> > 2010 August   14,1 141,1 1964  0,0023 -11,22 325,7 -10,7 25,63
> > 2015 August   14,5 141,2 1969  0,0014 -13,60 325,9 -10,6 25,63
> > 2016 February 22,9 333,5 1938  0,0031  -8,42 333,6 -14,0 25,49
> > 2020 August    8,2 135,8 1969  0,0083 -15,31 323,6 -11,5 27,22
> > 2022 August   16,8 143,6 1933  0,0074  +8,29 325,4 -11,5 24,19
> > 2022 August   16,9 143,7 1969  0,0072  +4,64 325,3 -11,5 24,14
> > 2022 August   16,9 143,7 1974  0,0055  +6,55 325,3 -11,5 24,16
> > 2022 August   17,0 143,8 1980  0,0040  +9,67 325,5 -11,4 24,20
> > 2025 August    8,5 135,9 1948  0,0033 -11,25 323,6 -11,2 27,26
> >
> > It is direct (not vertical) collisions. The direct collisions do not
> > show major meteor activity.
> >
> > Sergey
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