(meteorobs) REMINDER: *POSSIBLE* METEOR OUTBURST TONIGHT
Pat
pat_branch at yahoo.com
Sun Aug 15 19:18:30 EDT 2010
I watched the Capricorn area on Aug 14th 03:10 to 03:45 UT from NW fort worth. I saw 3 Chi Capricornids and one SPO. 3:12, 3:20 and 3:21.
They went in 3 different directions, but seemed to trace back to an area just between and below the top two stars. The limiting magnitude was 4, maybe even 3.
--- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com, Pierre Martin <pmartin at ...> wrote:
>
> Just curious if anyone else managed to see any Chi Capricornids
> activity? I was out last night for a few hours, with my field of view
> facing south. Although this possible radiant lurked low near my
> southern horizon, I was hoping that any signs of activity would
> manifest itself with a few slow moving long pathed meteors. I did
> plot three meteors of average or faint brightness out of Capricornus,
> but these could easily be explained by the presence of the antihelion
> radiant or sporadic chance alignments. I can say that I saw no
> obvious activity near the predicted time or the few hours that followed.
>
> Not too surprisingly, the Perseids provided the majority of the
> activity seen, even though the radiant was well away from my field of
> view. This included a long one in the north-west with a mag -3
> terminal flash.
>
> Clear skies,
>
> Pierre Martin
> Ottawa, Ontario
>
>
>
> On 13-Aug-10, at 6:07 PM, Pierre Martin wrote:
>
> > Although the reliability of this prediction is said to be much lower,
> > this warrants special attention to confirm whether or not an activity
> > occurs... Forwarded messages below:
> >
> > - Pierre
> >
> >
> >
> > =====================================
> >
> > Predictions of chi-Kapricornids activity (parent comet 45P\Honda-
> > Mrkos-
> > Pajdusakova for 2010, 2011 and 2012 are uploaded to
> > http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/predicteng.html.
> >
> > Around 3:30 UT on 14 August 2010 an outburst with ZHRex=20-30 is
> > possible, high meteor brightness. The best place for observation would
> > be South America. Reliability of this prediction is much lower than
> > say for the Perseids or Leonids, as there weren't any apparent 45P-ids
> > outbursts in the past.
> >
> > This prediction confirms the results obtained earlier for this case by
> > Sergey Shanov (Russia) and Mikiya Sato(Japan).
> >
> > Best regards, Mikhail Maslov
> >
> >
> > =====================================
> >
> >
> > My outcomes of calculations on a comet 45P can be seen here:
> >
> > Date (UT) l Trail delta_r V m/s alpha delta Vg km/s
> > 1990 August 18,7 145,6 1933 0,0017 -18,94 323,9 -12,6 22,53
> > 2000 August 12,4 140,0 1948 0,0084 -7,02 324,9 -11,1 25,80
> > 2000 August 12,6 140,2 1938 0,0042 -7,97 325,0 -10,9 25,77
> > 2005 August 12,6 139,9 1959 0,0017 -9,11 325,2 -11,1 25,85
> > 2005 August 12,7 140,0 1954 0,0055 -8,49 325,1 -11,0 25,84
> > 2010 August 14,1 141,1 1964 0,0023 -11,22 325,7 -10,7 25,63
> > 2015 August 14,5 141,2 1969 0,0014 -13,60 325,9 -10,6 25,63
> > 2016 February 22,9 333,5 1938 0,0031 -8,42 333,6 -14,0 25,49
> > 2020 August 8,2 135,8 1969 0,0083 -15,31 323,6 -11,5 27,22
> > 2022 August 16,8 143,6 1933 0,0074 +8,29 325,4 -11,5 24,19
> > 2022 August 16,9 143,7 1969 0,0072 +4,64 325,3 -11,5 24,14
> > 2022 August 16,9 143,7 1974 0,0055 +6,55 325,3 -11,5 24,16
> > 2022 August 17,0 143,8 1980 0,0040 +9,67 325,5 -11,4 24,20
> > 2025 August 8,5 135,9 1948 0,0033 -11,25 323,6 -11,2 27,26
> >
> > It is direct (not vertical) collisions. The direct collisions do not
> > show major meteor activity.
> >
> > Sergey
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