(meteorobs) Will the 2011 Draconids fizzle / roar / kill us all?

[dfischer at astro.uni-bonn.de]

Today I read
http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/draconid-meteors-2011-spacecraft-risk-100616.html
- "[c]urrent meteor forecast models project a strong Draconid outburst,
possibly a full-blown storm, on Oct. 8, 2011".

Naturally I was then looking for '2nd opinions' - which are, err, varied:

http://www.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Draconids/2011/index.php
-> just a diagram, but intriguing

http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/1901-2100eng/Draconids1901-2100predeng.html
-> max. ZHR 40 to 50

http://www.amro-net.jp/meteor-info/10_draconids.htm -> "attention for
outburst?"

http://www.theskyscrapers.org/meteors/index.php/year/2011 -> "peak rate of
10 meteors per hour"

http://www.explorerseclipse.co.uk/2011/rain-of-shooting-stars.aspx and
http://www.eclipsetours.com/2011draco.html -> two commercial tours offered
to observe "the next big meteor storm" ...

Which mean we are going to see - what?


Daniel