(meteorobs) Will the 2011 Draconids fizzle / roar / kill us all?

[Cooke, William J. (MSFC-EV44)]

Daniel,

As the article states, the forecast ZHRs easily span an order of magnitude - from a few tens (Maslow) to 750 or so (MSFC). Last I heard, Jeremie Vaubaillion and Jun-ichi Watanabe were forecasting a peak ZHR of less than 200. If Jeremie is watching, maybe he can post a more refined number.

As far as your last question, given the nearly full Moon and the fact that the Draconids are usually faint, the answer is not much.

Regards,
Bill Cooke

On Jun 16, 2010, at 7:54 AM, <dfischer at astro.uni-bonn.de> <dfischer at astro.uni-bonn.de> wrote:

> Today I read
> http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/draconid-meteors-2011-spacecraft-risk-100616.html
> - "[c]urrent meteor forecast models project a strong Draconid outburst,
> possibly a full-blown storm, on Oct. 8, 2011".
> 
> Naturally I was then looking for '2nd opinions' - which are, err, varied:
> 
> http://www.imcce.fr/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Draconids/2011/index.php
> -> just a diagram, but intriguing
> 
> http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/1901-2100eng/Draconids1901-2100predeng.html
> -> max. ZHR 40 to 50
> 
> http://www.amro-net.jp/meteor-info/10_draconids.htm -> "attention for
> outburst?"
> 
> http://www.theskyscrapers.org/meteors/index.php/year/2011 -> "peak rate of
> 10 meteors per hour"
> 
> http://www.explorerseclipse.co.uk/2011/rain-of-shooting-stars.aspx and
> http://www.eclipsetours.com/2011draco.html -> two commercial tours offered
> to observe "the next big meteor storm" ...
> 
> Which mean we are going to see - what?
> 
> 
> Daniel
> 
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