(meteorobs) Orionids 2010

Bomber2 Panther outbackmanyep at hotmail.com
Mon Oct 18 18:46:21 EDT 2010


Hi all,
Why are the Orionids not listed on www.imo.net ?
Is it because of the moon/unfavourable conditions this year?
 
I got out to see comet 103P/ Hartley 2 this morning and noticed a few at around 4am Australian Eastern Daylight Savings time (+11hrs UT)
 
Cheers,
Chris Wyatt
Walcha, NSW
Australia
 
> Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 01:38:01 +0900
> From: mail at kaicho.net
> To: meteorobs at meteorobs.org
> CC: Mikiya.Sato at nao.ac.jp
> Subject: (meteorobs) Orionids 2010
> 
> Dear all,
> 
> I am Mikiya Sato. I send the information of Orionids.
> This year, two trails will approach the earth by my simulation.
> The forecast of peak time is as follows;
> 
> -1265 trail : 206.8 - 207.7, Oct.20 11h - Oct.21 9h (UT)
> -910 trail : 209.9 - 211.5, Oct.23 23h - Oct.25 4h (UT)
> 
> However, the usual peak time about 208-209 (solar longitude, day of 
> Oct 21-22) was also active in 2008 and 2009.
> I think that this enhanced activities at usual peak might be caused
> from an effect of older dust which I can not calculate.
> So, the peak will be broad, between Oct 20 and 25.
> The expected max. ZHR is 40-50, it is the same level as one in 2009.
> 
> Next year's activity of Orionids will return to the normal level,
> before 2006. So, it is a final chance to observe an enhanced Orionids 
> in this year. The moon condition is very bad, but I hope that 
> many people try to observe Orionids.
> 
> Additional remark :
> The dust of -1265 trail and -910 trail is in a mean motion resonance
> of Jupiter, its ratio is 1:6. So the structure of the dust trail is kept.
> I do not have a information about the older dust, however, I think that 
> the older dust which have an active effect may also be in a 
> same resonance.
> 
> Best wishes,
> 
> Mikiya Sato (National Astronomical Observatory of Japan)
> Mikiya.Sato at nao.ac.jp
> ----
> ACM 2011 in Japan : http://chiron.mtk.nao.ac.jp/ACM2011/
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