(meteorobs) 2011 Quadrantids

[meteoreye at comcast.net]

It's a tough call really. While the peak is expected before the radiant rises for you, even the latest prediction for a peak would be 1 AM. 



But.... The radiant has just cleared the horizon at midnight, so rates would be < 5% of the ZHR (Maybe 6/hr), however they would be entertaining earth grazers. Toward dawn, a larger portion of the ZHR could be seen, but unless an extended peak occurs as in 2009, the ZHR would be falling rapidly. So while you'd see a greater portion (~ 60 % at 5 AM) the much lower ZHR would reduce the number you see. 



Considering these competing factors, I plan to end at 6 AM before dawn, and pick my start time base d on as many hours as I think I can last b efore then considering my s leep/awake state and the weather conditions. 



You can try using Peter Jenniskens' Fluxtimator: 



http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/estimator.html 



Be sure to select the correct shower (10 Quadrantids), Location (if you click on other you can enter your Lat/Long), date (3-4 Jan 2011) and select no for DST. 



I planned to go out this morning (that's why i'm awake at 6 AM), but while it was "clear" the LM was about +3.5, so I decided to save my effort for Tuesday morning. 



Wayne 



----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Alan Hilburn" Mark, I plan to send all data on GEMs and QUADs at the same time. What 
time do you feel that we will see maximum here in Southeast N.C.-S.C. 
area? Weather appears to look pretty good for tomorrow. Alan 

Alan P. Hilburn Sr. 

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