(meteorobs) Possible new meteor shower? comet C/2010 X1 Elenin

[Wayne Hally]

Not sure of the source of your info.

"We are at today at a minimum distance between the comet and the Earth"

The JPL sbdb page on the comet:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20X1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#
orb

shows the close approach, at 0.252 AU on Oct 15th of this year. The current
distance is ~2.9 AU.

Since the comet is (so far) on a hyperbolic orbit, it will never return to
the inner solar system, so the creation of a meteor shower is unlikely.

Perhaps the language difference is preventing me from understanding what you
are trying to say.

BTW, the current estimated  Earth MOID = .0306115 AU, so perhaps an outburst
is possible, but based on the current orbit, , it's over 0.2 AU away in
October (~100 X lunar distance), and with no return likely, a regular
shower, no.

Wayne
-----Original Message-----
From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org
[mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org] On Behalf Of Roberto G.
Sent: Friday, January 28, 2011 3:28 PM
To: Meteorobs
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Possible new meteor shower? comet C/2010 X1 Elenin

We are at today at a minimum distance between the comet and the Earth of
0,252 A.U..for the 15 october and a MOID of around 4,5 milion of km, if the
future changes in orbital elements shall go in the right direction we should
have a good comet to see and a possible new meteor shower, the Earth passing
around 10 days after the comet in the near same point of space.Strangely for
a comet with only 2° of  inclination, the orbit after more of 45 day, it's
until now 1.0.
Best greetings.
Roberto Gorelli 


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