(meteorobs) Possible new meteor shower? comet C/2010 X1 Elenin
md6648 at mclink.it
Sat Jan 29 12:04:48 EST 2011
Sorry for my bad English.
>From: "Wayne Hally" <meteoreye at comcast.net>
>Not sure of the source of your info.
>"We are at today at a minimum distance between the comet and the Earth"
>The JPL sbdb page on the comet:
It's the same that I utilised.
>shows the close approach, at 0.252 AU on Oct 15th of this year. The current
>distance is ~2.9 AU.
>Since the comet is (so far) on a hyperbolic orbit, it will never return to
>the inner solar system, so the creation of a meteor shower is unlikely.
As I wrote in answering to Leo Stachowicz (17 January), I think that this
comet can to be periodic (with a period of dozens or hundreds years)
because it's inclination (1.85°) it's so little that there is only a
possibility on around 50 (90°/1.85°) that the comet come from the deep
space with a parabolic orbit, this naturally it's only IHMO, perharps this
it's not real. In general if a comet has a periodic orbit in 45 days we know
this, each day more this possibility it's littlest.
>Perhaps the language difference is preventing me from understanding what
>you are trying to say.
It's certainly for my bad English.
>BTW, the current estimated Earth MOID = .0306115 AU, so perhaps an
>outburst is possible, but based on the current orbit, , it's over 0.2 AU
>away in October (~100 X lunar distance), and with no return likely, a
>regular shower, no.
You are correct, but we must remember that the orbit elements shall change
newly and only in the next months we shall know the real orbit, I think that
we hope all that the orbital elements of the comet change in the right
way, following today data, in the second half of September (16-27
September) the comet should be of 3.8a magnitudine
and if the orbit of the comet it's really periodic it's possible that in the
old meteor data we can find outburst or a simple meteor shower
(with low ZHR), but this it's a work to do in the next months.
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