(meteorobs) Possible new meteor shower? comet C/2010 X1 Elenin

[Wayne Hally]

Roberto,

>Sorry for my bad English.

No need to apologize, we just have to put in a little extra effort. :)


>As I wrote in answering to Leo Stachowicz (17 January), I think that this
comet can to be periodic (with a period of dozens or hundreds years) because
it's inclination (1.85°) it's so little >that there is only a possibility on
around 50 (90°/1.85°) that the comet come from the deep space with a
parabolic orbit, this naturally it's only IHMO, perharps this it's not real.
In general >if a comet has a periodic orbit in 45 days we know this, each
day more this possibility it's littlest.

>>BTW, the current estimated  Earth MOID = .0306115 AU, so perhaps an 
>>outburst is possible, but based on the current orbit, , it's over 0.2 
>>AU away in October (~100 X lunar distance), and with no return likely, 
>>a regular shower, no.

>You are correct, but we must remember that the orbit elements shall change
newly and only in the next months we shall know the real orbit, I think that
we hope all that the orbital >elements of the comet change in the right way,
following today data, in the second half of September (16-27
>September) the comet should be of 3.8a magnitudine

http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/MPEph/MPEph.html

>and if the orbit of the comet it's really periodic it's possible that in
the old meteor data we can find outburst or a simple meteor shower (with low
ZHR), but this it's a work to do in the >next months.

>Best greetings.
>Roberto Gorelli

Certainly, time will tell as new observations revise the known (estimated)
oscular orbit!

Wayne


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