(meteorobs) "Forecast" of fireballs from NEO visit - huh?

[Jason Utas]

Hello All,

It's unfair to harp on Wayne for not proving someone else's claims.
If Elton wants to make conjectures and state them as probable/factual,
he should be able to back his statements up with data/evidence.
Wayne's not saying that Elton's wrong -- he's just saying that the
work should be done before claims are made.
Such statements should be supported by data.  It's available for Elton
to sort through, after all.

I'd say differently if Elton had addressed this with no data and a
skeptical approach, but he really didn't.

And perhaps it will galvanize some effort on his part and we can all
look forward to an abstract/ paper authored by him at an upcoming
conference.  Or not.

Kudos to Karl and Robert, sorry for the off-topic-ish post.

Regards,
Jason




On Mon, Oct 17, 2011 at 9:15 AM, drtanuki <drtanuki at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Wayne,  If you weren`t so busy you might check the AMS archives for repeated patterns for 14OCT-20OCT from 2005-2011 or even earlier if they exist. Correlation to an NEO?; unknown yet.  You speak so much for a person who knows so little.
> Best Regards, Dirk Ross..Tokyo
>
> --- On Sun, 10/16/11, Wayne Hally <meteoreye at comcast.net> wrote:
>
>> From: Wayne Hally <meteoreye at comcast.net>
>> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) "Forecast" of fireballs from NEO visit - huh?
>> To: "'Meteor science and meteor observing'" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
>> Date: Sunday, October 16, 2011, 2:00 AM
>> No merit or correlation whatsoever.
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org
>> [mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org]
>> On Behalf Of Daniel Fischer
>> Sent: Saturday, October 15, 2011 12:11 PM
>> To: MPML at yahoogroups.com;
>> meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>> Subject: (meteorobs) "Forecast" of fireballs from NEO visit
>> - huh?
>>
>> "A close approach by NEO Astroid [sic] 2009 TM8 and its
>> accompanying debris
>> will bring us some large green fireball meteors just prior
>> to and just after
>> the 17OCT2011," proclaims
>> http://lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com/2011/10/close-neo-approach-to-brin
>> g-large-green.html - is there *any* merit to that? I mean,
>> why would a NEO -
>> that was kicked out of the main belt a long time ago -
>> still be accompanied
>> by any small debris particles which are affected by very
>> different radiation
>> pressure, Yarkovsky, Poynting-Robertson and whatnot orbital
>> effects? Or
>> observation-wise: Has there even been a significant
>> statistical correlation
>> established between NEO approaches and bolide recordings?
>> Data on both are
>> now being collected in a quite systematic way, so matching
>> tables shouldn't
>> be too hard ...
>>
>> Dan
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