(meteorobs) "Forecast" of fireballs from NEO visit - huh?

[Cooke, William J. (MSFC-EV44)]

I'm not going to be drawn into the color arguments... I'm color blind at night anyway. Every meteor is white to me... well, maybe a bit of yellow now and then :)

However, I can do far better in regard to fireball orbits and orgins. Over the past few days, our ASGARD systems here in the SouthEast and in New Mexico have detected meteors from 6 different showers: The Southern Taurids, associated with Comet Encke, the Orionids, associated with Comet Halley, the October Delta Aurigids, the October Ursae Majorids, the Chi Taurids, and the Epsilon Geminds. With this many showers going on, it is not surprising fireball rates should show a bump during this week.

Orbital data for all these meteors are consistent with a cometary or main belt origin - there is nothing in the data that would indicate correlations with any known NEO. Eyewitness accounts yield valuable information, but are of little use in deriving orbits, which is the only way of getting some idea as to a meteor's origin. Sorry to rain on the NEO hypothesis, but the data does not support it.

Link to orbit plots for past 4 days:
http://www.billcooke.org/Orbit_Plots/orbital_20111014.png
http://www.billcooke.org/Orbit_Plots/orbital_20111015.png
http://www.billcooke.org/Orbit_Plots/orbital_20111016.png
http://www.billcooke.org/Orbit_Plots/orbital_20111017.png

Regards,
Bill Cooke
Meteoroid Environments Office
EV44, Marshall Space Flight Center

Office: (256) 544-9136
Fax: (256) 544-0242
William.J.Cooke at nasa.gov

On Oct 17, 2011, at 11:15 AM, drtanuki wrote:

> Wayne,  If you weren`t so busy you might check the AMS archives for repeated patterns for 14OCT-20OCT from 2005-2011 or even earlier if they exist. Correlation to an NEO?; unknown yet.  You speak so much for a person who knows so little.  
> Best Regards, Dirk Ross..Tokyo
> 
> --- On Sun, 10/16/11, Wayne Hally <meteoreye at comcast.net> wrote:
> 
>> From: Wayne Hally <meteoreye at comcast.net>
>> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) "Forecast" of fireballs from NEO visit - huh?
>> To: "'Meteor science and meteor observing'" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
>> Date: Sunday, October 16, 2011, 2:00 AM
>> No merit or correlation whatsoever.
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org
>> [mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org]
>> On Behalf Of Daniel Fischer
>> Sent: Saturday, October 15, 2011 12:11 PM
>> To: MPML at yahoogroups.com;
>> meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>> Subject: (meteorobs) "Forecast" of fireballs from NEO visit
>> - huh?
>> 
>> "A close approach by NEO Astroid [sic] 2009 TM8 and its
>> accompanying debris
>> will bring us some large green fireball meteors just prior
>> to and just after
>> the 17OCT2011," proclaims
>> http://lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com/2011/10/close-neo-approach-to-brin
>> g-large-green.html - is there *any* merit to that? I mean,
>> why would a NEO -
>> that was kicked out of the main belt a long time ago -
>> still be accompanied
>> by any small debris particles which are affected by very
>> different radiation
>> pressure, Yarkovsky, Poynting-Robertson and whatnot orbital
>> effects? Or
>> observation-wise: Has there even been a significant
>> statistical correlation
>> established between NEO approaches and bolide recordings?
>> Data on both are
>> now being collected in a quite systematic way, so matching
>> tables shouldn't
>> be too hard ...
>> 
>> Dan
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