(meteorobs) UARS Satellite expected to reenter atmosphere in 3-5 days

[Wayne Hally]

Prepare for UFO and fireball reports!

 

This will be an uncontrolled reentry, so could occur anywhere from 57
degrees N to 57 degrees South latitude.

 

Latest estimate is Sept 23 +/- 1 day

 

The risk assessment is interesting reading:

 

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

 

Total dry mass at start 5668 kg

 

- Number of potentially hazardous objects expected to survive: 26

- Total mass of objects expected to survive: 532 kg

- Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200

 

. No NASA or USG human casualty reentry risk limits existed when UARS

was designed, built, and launched.

 

. NASA, the USG, and some foreign space agencies now seek to limit human

casualty risks from reentering space objects to less than 1 in 10,000.

 

. UARS is a moderate-sized space object. Uncontrolled reentries of objects

more massive than UARS are not frequent, but neither are they unusual.

- Combined Dragon mockup and Falcon 9 second stage reentry in June 2010 was
more

massive.

 

. Since the beginning of the space age, there has been no confirmed report

of an injury resulting from reentering space objects.

 

. NASA, DoD, and the IADC will be monitoring the decay and reentry of UARS

carefully.

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