(meteorobs) Best estimate for UARS initial reentry

[Wayne Hally]

I don't think that's right Mike.

Based on the Center of Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies map as of 1202
UTC:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

The orbit that crosses Florida is about 5.1 hours EARLIER than 11:16 PM EDT,
or about 6:10 PM.

I will send you a private e-mail with another site of information that is
the most up to date available. That should give more precise timing for that
pass.

I have also heard from my source that it is falling faster (and therefore
arriving earlier) than the latest update predicted above.

Still working on getting details.

Latest orbit (as of 10:34:22 UTC this morning was 162 x 170 km with a period
of ~ 87 min 50 sec. It had dropped 11 km (perigee) and 13 km (apogee) in the
precious 11.5 hours.

Wayne



-----Original Message-----
From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org
[mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org] On Behalf Of Mike Hankey
Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 4:29 PM
To: Meteor science and meteor observing
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Best estimate for UARS initial reentry

Based on this information I am making the conclusion that the re-entry could
possibly be seen from south florida.

Re-entry window in eastern time is: Friday, September 23, 2011 at
11:00:00 PM +- 5 hours

UARS is set to pass south florida at 1:50 AM EST Saturday, Sept 24.

http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701&lat=25.56227&lng=-80.2
002&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

Therefore folks in FL have a 'good' chance of witnessing the re-entry.

Can someone please validate this conclusion. I think I'm doing this right,
but want to make sure before I tell my friends in Florida to look out for
it.

Thanks,

Mike

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: drobnock <drobnock at penn.com>
Date: Fri, Sep 23, 2011 at 3:06 PM
Subject: (meteorobs)  Best estimate for UARS initial reentry
To: "meteorobs at meteorobs.org" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>


Estimate for UARS beginning reentry Sahara Area at  03:16 UTC ± 5 hours
See: Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies>
http://reentrynews.aero.org/upcoming.html
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

Of course this is = or- five hours
George John Drobnock

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