(meteorobs) Best estimate for UARS initial reentry

Mike Hankey mike.hankey at gmail.com
Fri Sep 23 17:23:59 EDT 2011


Thanks Wayne and everyone else for the responses. In my first attempt,
on heavens above, i was using the wrong timezone (thanks Jim!).  My
revised time for Miami is:

19:48:42 - 19:50:05 EDT Sept 23.

http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701&lat=25.76032&lng=-80.37598&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=EST

I 'think' this is right / (almost) FINAL answer...



On Fri, Sep 23, 2011 at 4:59 PM, Wayne Hally <meteoreye at comcast.net> wrote:
> I don't think that's right Mike.
>
> Based on the Center of Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies map as of 1202
> UTC:
>
> http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
>
> The orbit that crosses Florida is about 5.1 hours EARLIER than 11:16 PM EDT,
> or about 6:10 PM.
>
> I will send you a private e-mail with another site of information that is
> the most up to date available. That should give more precise timing for that
> pass.
>
> I have also heard from my source that it is falling faster (and therefore
> arriving earlier) than the latest update predicted above.
>
> Still working on getting details.
>
> Latest orbit (as of 10:34:22 UTC this morning was 162 x 170 km with a period
> of ~ 87 min 50 sec. It had dropped 11 km (perigee) and 13 km (apogee) in the
> precious 11.5 hours.
>
> Wayne
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org
> [mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org] On Behalf Of Mike Hankey
> Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 4:29 PM
> To: Meteor science and meteor observing
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Best estimate for UARS initial reentry
>
> Based on this information I am making the conclusion that the re-entry could
> possibly be seen from south florida.
>
> Re-entry window in eastern time is: Friday, September 23, 2011 at
> 11:00:00 PM +- 5 hours
>
> UARS is set to pass south florida at 1:50 AM EST Saturday, Sept 24.
>
> http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701&lat=25.56227&lng=-80.2
> 002&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET
>
> Therefore folks in FL have a 'good' chance of witnessing the re-entry.
>
> Can someone please validate this conclusion. I think I'm doing this right,
> but want to make sure before I tell my friends in Florida to look out for
> it.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Mike
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: drobnock <drobnock at penn.com>
> Date: Fri, Sep 23, 2011 at 3:06 PM
> Subject: (meteorobs)  Best estimate for UARS initial reentry
> To: "meteorobs at meteorobs.org" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
>
>
> Estimate for UARS beginning reentry Sahara Area at  03:16 UTC ± 5 hours
> See: Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies>
> http://reentrynews.aero.org/upcoming.html
> http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
>
> Of course this is = or- five hours
> George John Drobnock
>
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