(meteorobs) Followup on what Dave said...

Marco Langbroek marco.langbroek at wanadoo.nl
Fri Sep 23 22:50:09 EDT 2011


Op 24-9-2011 04:40, Wayne Hally schreef:
> Latest update as of 2215 UTC, demise is ~ 7 hours away, and the US is finally
> off the table.
>
> Orbit at that time (about 4 hours ago) was 145 x 150 km (90 x 93 mi). Down 17
> and 20 km in the preceding 12 hours.
>
> Estimated crash time is 0510 UTC Sept 24 +/- 2 hours, over the very south
> Pacific west of Australia, although the earlier and later orbits include Canada,
> Africa and Australia of the landmasses.


Summary of current time predictions (all UTC) from various sources:

SSC (NORAD):  4:16 +/- 2h
Aerospace Corp:  5:10 +/- 2h

Ted Molczan: 4:15
me: 4:45 +/- 40 minutes

Ted and my estimates are both based on the latest few orbital updates and Alan 
Pickup's SatEvo software. They are indications at best. The (final) SSC 
prediction was published 2 hours ago

- Marco

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Dr Marco (asteroid 183294) Langbroek
Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)

e-mail: dms at marcolangbroek.nl
http://www.dmsweb.org
http://www.marcolangbroek.nl
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