(meteorobs) Why so much uncertainty about re-entry?

[Jim Wooddell]

Hello Paul,

Simply put, the DOD does not share it's operations with the general public. 
Make sense?

Best!

Jim Wooddell

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Paul Goelz" <pgoelz at comcast.net>
To: "Ed Cannon" <edcannonsat at yahoo.com>; "Meteor science and meteor 
observing" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Sent: Saturday, September 24, 2011 8:47 AM
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Why so much uncertainty about re-entry?


> At 11:30 AM 9/24/2011, you wrote:
>>For Paul and Dan and others questioning the large uncertainty
>>in the re-entry predictions, here's a relevant paragraph from
>>the Aerospace Corporation:
>>
>>"It is very difficult to predict where debris from a randomly
>>reentering satellite will hit Earth, primarily because drag
>>on the object is directly proportional to atmospheric density,
>>and atmospheric density varies greatly at high altitudes. In
>>general, we can predict the time that reentry will begin to
>>within 10 percent of the actual time. Unfortunately, reentering
>>objects travel so fast that a minute of error in the time is
>>equivalent to many miles on the ground."
>
> Just to be clear.... I am not questioning the difficulty of
> PREDICTING the reentry or impact point.  I fully understand those
> difficulties.  What I am questioning is the lack of any specific
> information in the hours/minutes leading up to the event and
> especially many hours afterwards.
>
> Yes, I am sure the event was observed by some entity.  I find it odd
> that those observations have not been made available.
>
> Paul
>
>
> Paul Goelz
> Rochester Hills, Michigan USA
> pgoelz at comcast.net
> www.pgoelz.com
>
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