(meteorobs) Perseid predictions?

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 8/4/2012 3:49:06 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
lunro.imo.usa at cox.net writes:
 
Since Mikhail's prediction clearly states this prediction of  a  ZHR of 100 
is the normal background component, I believe he mistakenly continued  with 
the August 13 maximum of 2011 for 2012 instead of changing it to August 12, 
 as all others have done. This would be very unfortunate if someone uses 
this  error and misses the Sunday morning maximum, expecting it to occur on  
Monday.




Bob --
 
You are probably right!  In 2011 Mikhail's forecast was for  the Perseid 
peak to come on August 13 at 7:09 UT.  
 
Taking into account leap-day, this year the forecast for the peak  of the 
normal background component indeed should have shifted over to  August 12.  
 
Next year (2013), he is again forecasting the peak of the  normal 
background component with on August 12, at 19:28 UT.
 
So it would seem that Mikhail's forecast for 2012 should be changed  to 
read: August 12 at 13:19 UT.
 
Incidentally, Space Weather.com is promoting the peak of this  year's 
Perseids as coming on the night of August 12-13.  In light of this  correction, 
they probably should change this to read, August 11-12.
 
-- joe rao

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