(meteorobs) [meteorite-list] 2012/02/01 TX Fireball Trajectory Solutions v1
Mike Hankey
mike.hankey at gmail.com
Thu Feb 9 08:38:09 EST 2012
interesting Marc, not what i would have expected...
On Thu, Feb 9, 2012 at 4:42 AM, Marc Fries <mfries8 at hotmail.com> wrote:
> Howdy all
>
> Based largely on Bill Cooke's data, I've run a dark flight model to
> generate an estimated strewn field for the DFW event. I was surprised at
> the results, but after looking it over it appears correct given the very
> flat trajectory and high velocity when dark flight began. I may be out of
> contact for the next couple of days (no, not searching in Texas
> unfortunately) so I'm putting this result out there so y'all can examine
> it, discuss it, and hopefully compare it against dark flight model results
> that others run.
>
> http://radarmeteorites.**wordpress.com/2012/02/03/tx-**
> dfw-area-02-feb-2012-0157-utc/<http://radarmeteorites.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/tx-dfw-area-02-feb-2012-0157-utc/>
>
> Cheers,
> Marc Fries
>
>
>
> On 2/8/12 8:38 PM, Mike Hankey wrote:
>
>> Jake,
>>
>> I agree its a bit further south.
>>
>> Bill was kind enough to give me the AZ/EL values for all cameras. These
>> are plate solved using software so very solid and more accurate than the
>> ones I did manually.
>>
>> I added the hawley camera and the austin camera and re-ran the program
>> using the updated values.
>>
>> It generated 5 solutions using 5 different camera combos almost all are
>> identical and very close to Bill's solution. Its pretty ridiculous, how
>> close these all are.
>>
>> So I think this is a winner folks. :)
>>
>> I posted a picture of the 6 trajectories and also a link to the
>> trajectory KMZ file. See the update at the bottom of this page:
>>
>> http://www.mikesastrophotos.**com/comets/2012-02-01-texas-**
>> fireball-trajectory-solutions/<http://www.mikesastrophotos.com/comets/2012-02-01-texas-fireball-trajectory-solutions/>
>>
>> *When viewing the kmz trajectories, keep in mind Bill's red line is 2d
>> and ends at 40km altitude while the other trajectory models are 3d & drawn
>> toward their 0km geometric end point.
>>
>> Thanks,
>>
>> Mike Hankey
>> Freeland MD
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 8, 2012 at 10:33 PM, Jake S <jakeschaeferml at gmail.com<mailto:
>> jakeschaeferml at gmail.**com <jakeschaeferml at gmail.com>>> wrote:
>>
>> I've made some revisions as well. With the altitude data from Bill
>> Cooke. Given that it was so shallow and still at 60 km when it passed
>> by the seismograph greatly alters what I had expected. I would have
>> expected the sonic boom to not generate such a large pressure wave
>> until in the more dense lower air. But anyways this high altitude
>> brings the trajectory farther south. Based on my calculations from the
>> seismograph, the trajectory Bill Cooke has provided is only about 3km
>> off which is easily within the uncertainty in my calculations
>> (especially if the speed of sound is slightly off, colder than a
>> standard day?)
>>
>> http://3dradar.wordpress.com/**2012/02/09/dfw-tx-222012-0157-**utc/<http://3dradar.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/dfw-tx-222012-0157-utc/>
>> -jake
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 8, 2012 at 7:09 PM, Mike Hankey <mike.hankey at gmail.com
>> <mailto:mike.hankey at gmail.com>**> wrote:
>> > Jake,
>> >
>> > Thanks for the input. I'm going to make some revisions to my
>> > information and also take into consideration the 2nd camera in
>> Hawley.
>> > Prior to Bill's post I was really confused about the cameras in
>> > coleman vs hawley. I didn't realize there were actually two cameras.
>> > I'm also going to work in the data from Pat on the austin camera. i
>> > also have some revised & new az/el values. I will report back
>> with v2.
>> >
>> > Thanks,
>> >
>> > Mike
>> >
>> > On Wed, Feb 8, 2012 at 8:55 PM, Jake S <jakeschaeferml at gmail.com
>> <mailto:jakeschaeferml at gmail.**com <jakeschaeferml at gmail.com>>> wrote:
>> >> I drew up a rough map with the seismograph data on it (very rough
>> >> drawing, if you want the actual data I can probably send you
>> it). In
>> >> my previous post i had said the video trajectory was too far
>> north but
>> >> I think i must have drawn it off or something, because it
>> appears they
>> >> are very close. The video trajectory is actually slightly south.
>> >>
>> >> http://3dradar.wordpress.com/**2012/02/09/dfw-tx-222012-0157-**utc/<http://3dradar.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/dfw-tx-222012-0157-utc/>
>> >>
>> >> I know all the eye witness's seem to show it over by Edgewood but i
>> >> think these two pieces (video and seismographs) show it further
>> north,
>> >> the one seismograph isn't the greatest of hits but if going off
>> that
>> >> as being accurate, I'd search up by Greenville, TX, otherwise
>> it could
>> >> rotate more East/West and be down near Edgewood also but i
>> think this
>> >> is the less likely scenario. Until they are found, we won't know...
>> >>
>> >> -Jake
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> On Wed, Feb 8, 2012 at 9:48 AM, Pat <pat_branch at yahoo.com
>> <mailto:pat_branch at yahoo.com>> wrote:
>> >>> Jake can you provide a line (or the coordinates for a line)
>> that represent the center of the seismograph data? I think between
>> that and the Austin video I can actually look on the ground.
>> >>>
>> >>> I currently have it following the dark green band in Mike's
>> map4 below, but displaced to the north so that it just clips the
>> north of the cedar creek reservoir. I think the seismograph data
>> could give us a directional line on the ground (and if I am
>> correct it should pass thru Ennis).
>> >>>
>> >>> --- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com
>> <mailto:meteorobs at yahoogroups.**com <meteorobs at yahoogroups.com>>,
>> Jake S <jakeschaeferml at ...> wrote:
>> >>>>
>> >>>> I have a few comments on your trajectory, particularly on
>> this image:
>> >>>>
>> http://www.mikesastrophotos.**com/wp-content/uploads/2012/**
>> 02/map4.jpg<http://www.mikesastrophotos.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/map4.jpg>
>> >>>>
>> >>>> I think your red/maroon colored trajectory is too far north.
>> Based on
>> >>>> sonic boom arrival times to seismographs, the trajectory
>> looks like it
>> >>>> will be between the dark green and red lines on that map.
>> >>>>
>> >>>> >From the coordinates of : (31.99,-97.46), the meteor HAS to have
>> >>>> passed no more than 86 km distance at its closest point.
>> Factoring in
>> >>>> altitude it must travel will reduce this further 86 =
>> >>>> sqrt(altitude^2+ground distance^2). Factoring in a reasonable
>> mach
>> >>>> angle for the shockwave only slightly increases the distance.
>> With all
>> >>>> this in mind, i think your red trajectory is possibly up to
>> 20 km too
>> >>>> far north, at least near the starting point of that line,
>> what that
>> >>>> shift will do to the endpoint i don't know. If i knew the
>> velocity and
>> >>>> altitudes of the trajectory this could be refined i think.
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>> On Tue, Feb 7, 2012 at 7:52 PM, Mike Hankey <mike.hankey at ...>
>> wrote:
>> >>>> > Thanks Pat. I would agree with a SE of Greenville location.
>> Are you
>> >>>> > saying these guys found meteorites from this fireball already?
>> >>>> >
>> >>>> > On Tue, Feb 7, 2012 at 10:29 PM, Pat <pat_branch at ...> wrote:
>> >>>> >> Mike,
>> >>>> >> Here is a great meteor view which I have not seen until
>> now. It was shot in Austin from the Joe's Crab Shack at 600
>> Riverside Dr. The angles should be easy to calculate accurately
>> because the city skyline gives you some angle estimates. I posted
>> a picture of exactly where the video was shot from in the Files
>> section of this group.
>> >>>> >> The view was shot NNW between the two trees just off the
>> balcony.
>> >>>> >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?**v=8juQ_ld_G7U<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8juQ_ld_G7U>
>> >>>> >>
>> >>>> >> I still think it was SE of Greenville, but I am sure there
>> were at least two large pieces that separated early. I have seen
>> pictures of a team from the Austin Planetarium which I believe
>> found some meteorites about 1 mile east of Edgewood TX at the
>> corner of County Roads 3601 and 3604.
>> >>>> >> Pat
>> >>>> >>
>> >>>> >> --- In meteorobs at yahoogroups.com
>> <mailto:meteorobs at yahoogroups.**com <meteorobs at yahoogroups.com>>,
>> Mike Hankey <mike.hankey@> wrote:
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> Hello,
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> I've been working on the trajectory for this fireball,
>> but i've been a
>> >>>> >>> little discombobulated due to the mystery over Kevin's
>> Hawley /
>> >>>> >>> Coleman camera location. A friend forward'd me what I
>> believe to be
>> >>>> >>> the best location for Kevins camera and we suspect it is
>> in coleman
>> >>>> >>> and not hawley.
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> I am a lot happier with these solutions and want to share
>> now that I'm
>> >>>> >>> more confident.
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> I want to stress this is still just a v1 cut at the
>> trajectories and
>> >>>> >>> the calculations are based on manual solving of the
>> allsky images,
>> >>>> >>> which is an imperfect art form. So, this is probably
>> wrong, but the
>> >>>> >>> best calculated guess with available information.
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> I'm willing to share my values and KMZ with anyone who is
>> interested
>> >>>> >>> and I would actually like to compare notes with someone
>> to make sure I
>> >>>> >>> didn't make any major mis-calculations with regard to
>> lat/long/az/el
>> >>>> >>> values.
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> I will continue to work on this folding in good witness data.
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> Here are the maps:
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>>
>> http://www.mikesastrophotos.**com/comets/2012-02-01-texas-**
>> fireball-trajectory-solutions/<http://www.mikesastrophotos.com/comets/2012-02-01-texas-fireball-trajectory-solutions/>
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> Thanks,
>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>> >>> Mike Hankey
>> >>>> >>> Freeland MD
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