(meteorobs) Meteor Activity Outlook for November 17-23, 2012

[Robert Lunsford]

Joe and All,

The timing is a bit early for observers in North America. At a ZHR of 10-15, the eastern portion of North America may see a small fraction of these if they show up at all. Lastly, the IMO calendar states that particles from the AD 1400 would produce meteors of below -average brightness. It does not sound like anything exciting and that is way I did not mention it in my weekly outlook. I would hope you might be right and that the meteors may bright....time will tell. 

Clear Skies!

Bob


---- skywayinc at aol.com wrote: 
> 
> Bob --
> 
> Re: your comment regarding the Leonids: "As the weekend passes, these rates will fall to only 2-3 per hour." 
> 
> Any thoughts on the interaction of the Earth with a dust trail ejected by Comet 55/P dating back to AD 1400 that both Jerimie Vauballion and Mikhail Maslov have forecast will interact with Earth during the early hours of next Tuesday morning?  While nothing extraordinary is expected regarding ZHRs (Mikhail is thinking 15-20), it is my contention that debris that is this old (18-revolutions/600+ years) might carry a few larger-than-normal particles that may give rise to some outstandingly bright meteors.  
> 
> -- joe rao
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Robert Lunsford <lunro.imo.usa at cox.net>
> To: meteorobs <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
> Sent: Fri, Nov 16, 2012 3:21 pm
> Subject: (meteorobs) Meteor Activity Outlook for November 17-23, 2012
> 
> 
> During this period the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Tuesday November 
> 0th. At this time the moon is located ninety degrees east of the sun and will 
> et near 2300 (1100pm) local standard time (LST). This weekend the waxing 
> rescent moon will set during the early evening hours and will pose no problems 
> o meteor watchers. Later in the week the gibbous moon will limit good meteor 
> bserving to the late morning morning before dawn. The estimated total hourly 
> eteor rates for evening observers this week is near four for observers located 
> t mid-northern latitudes and three for observers in mid-southern latitudes. For 
> orning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near twenty eight 
> rom the mid-northern hemisphere and twenty three from the mid-southern 
> emisphere. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light 
> nd motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in 
> atching meteor activity. Rates are reduced during t
> he evening hours due to moonlight.
> The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear to shoot from) positions 
> nd rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning November 
> 7/18. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed 
> oordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available 
> t science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the 
> elestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are 
> ocated in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful 
> n showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from 
> ach radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due 
> orth or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be 
> emembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather 
> hey shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view 
> o that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center
> . Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to 
> he radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is a 
> poradic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located below the 
> orizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of 
> ight ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located 
> urther west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed 
> urther down the list rise later in the night.
> The following radiants are expected to be active this week:
> Remnants from the famous Andromedid (AND) shower, noted for intense storms 
> uring the 19th century, may still be seen throughout November. The current 
> osition of this large radiant is 01:36 (024) +37. This position lies in eastern 
> ndromeda, three degrees east of the second magnitude star Mirach (Beta 
> ndromedae). The radiant is so diffuse that Andromedid meteors may be seen 
> oming from Triangulum, northern Pisces, as well as Andromeda. Visual activity 
> s expected to be low, but detectable. An inconspicuous maximum occurred on 
> ovember 9, when this source was the 5th most active radiant in the sky. The 
> ndromedid meteors are best seen near 2200 (10pm) local standard time (LST), 
> hen the radiant lies on the meridian and lies highest in the sky. At 19km/sec., 
> he average Andromedid will appear as a very slow moving meteor.
> Studies of the IMO video database by Sirko Molau and Juergen Rendtel has 
> evealed another active radiant in Taurus this time of year. Now that the 
> outhern Taurids are no longer detectable, the Gamma Taurids (GTA) may be 
> istinguished within the Taurid complex. The Gamma Taurid radiant is centered at 
> 4:04 (061) +15. This area of the sky lies in western Taurus, three degrees west 
> f the the 4th magnitude star Hyadum I (Gamma Tauri). The radiant is best placed 
> ear 0100 LST, when it lies highest above the horizon. Maximum activity occurred 
> n November 10th so current rates would be near one shower member per hour, no 
> atter your location.  Meteors from the Gamma Taurids strike the atmosphere at 
> 7km/sec., which would produce meteors of slow velocity.
> The Northern Taurids (NTA) are active from a radiant centered at 04:16 (064) 
> 24. This area of the sky lies in western Taurus just three degrees west of the 
> amous naked eye open cluster known as the Pleiades or the Seven Sisters. The 
> adiant is best placed near 0100 LST, when it lies highest above the horizon. 
> aximum activity occurred on November 13th so current hourly rates would be near 
> hree from the northern hemisphere and two from south of the equator. Meteors 
> rom the Northern Taurids strike the atmosphere at 29km/sec., which would 
> roduce meteors of slow velocity.
> The November Orionids (NOO) are active from a radiant located at 05:28 (082) 
> 16. This area of the sky is located on the Orion/Taurus border, twelve degrees 
> ast of the first magnitude orange star Aldebaran (Alpha Tauri).. The peak for 
> his radiant is not until November 30th, so rates would be less than than one 
> hower member per hour, no matter your location. This location is close to the 
> aurid complex, but far enough east to be distinguishable. The faster velocity 
> f the November should help distinguish these meteors from the slower, but more 
> umerous Taurids. The radiant is best placed for viewing near 0200 LST when it 
> ies on the meridian and is highest above the horizon. With an entry velocity of 
> 4 km/sec., the November Orionids would be of medium speed.
> The last few meteors from the Orionids (ORI) will be seen this week. The radiant 
> s located at 08:00 (120) +15. This area of the sky is located on the 
> emini/Cancer border, twelve degrees northeast of the zero magnitude star 
> rocyon (Alpha Canis Minoris). The radiant is best placed for viewing near 0400 
> ST when it lies on the meridian and is highest above the horizon. Expected 
> ourly rates would be less than one no matter your location With an entry 
> elocity of 67 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.
> The Leonids (LEO) are now the most active radiant in the sky, producing a dozen 
> hower members per hour during the last couple of hours before dawn. As the 
> eekend passes, these rates will fall to only 2-3 per hour. The radiant is 
> urrently located at 10:16 (154) +22. This position lies in northwestern Leo, 
> ithin the "sickle" of Leo, two degrees northwest of the second magnitude double 
> tar Algeiba (Gamma Leonis). The Leonid radiant is best placed during the last 
> our before morning twilight when the radiant lies highest in a dark sky. 
> eonids may be seen from the southern hemisphere but the viewing conditions are 
> ot quite as favorable as those north of the equator.
> Studies of the IMO video database by Sirko Molau and Juergen Rendtel has 
> evealed an active radiant in Draco this time of year. The November Iota 
> raconids (NID) radiant is located at 12:36 (189) +70. This area of the sky lies 
> n western Draco close to the position occupied by the fourth magnitude star 
> appa Draconis. The radiant is best placed near 0100 LST, when it lies highest 
> bove the horizon. Maximum activity occurs on November 26th so current rates 
> ould be less than one shower member per hour, no matter your location.  Due to 
> he high northerly declination of the radiant these meteors are not visible from 
> ost of the southern hemisphere. Only southern equatorial regions would have any 
> hance of seeing activity from this source Meteors from the November Iota 
> raconids strike the atmosphere at 43km/sec., which would produce meteors of 
> edium velocity.
> As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see 
> pproximately twelve sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn 
> s seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near three per hour. 
> s seen from the mid-southern hemisphere (45S), morning rates would be near six 
> er hour as seen from rural observing sites and two per hour during the evening 
> ours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between the 
> isted figures. Evening rates are reduced due to moonlight.
> The list below presents a condensed version of the expected activity this week.
> ates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning but may be used
> or the entire period.
> Andromedids (AND) - 01:36 (024) +37   Velocity - 19km/sec.
> orthern Hemisphere - <1 per hr.   Southern Hemisphere - <1 per hr.
> Gamma Taurids (GTA) - 04:04 (061) +15    Velocity - 29km/sec.
> orthern Hemisphere - 1 per hr.    Southern Hemisphere - 1 per hr.
> Northern Taurids (NTA) - 04:16 (064) +24   Velocity - 29km/sec.
> orthern Hemisphere - 3 per hr. Southern Hemisphere - 2 per hr.
> November Orionids (NOO) - 05:28 (082) +16   Velocity - 44km/sec.
> orthern Hemisphere -<1 per hr.    Southern Hemisphere - <1 per hr.
> Leonids (LEO) - 10:16 (154) +22    Velocity - 71km/sec.
> orthern Hemisphere - 12 per hr.    Southern Hemisphere - 10 per hr.
> Nov. Iota Draconids (NID - 12:36 (189) +70    Velocity - 43km/sec.
> orthern Hemisphere -<1 per hr.    Southern Hemisphere - <1 per hr.
> Clear Skies!
> obert Lunsford
> merican Meteor Society
> 					
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