(meteorobs) A new meteor shower in December 2012?

[Mikiya Sato]

Hello all,

I am Mikiya Sato.
I have calculated the distributions of the dust trails from 46P.
My results are as follows. 

Year  Date(UT)      LS      delta-r(AU) EjV(m/s)   fM
1921  Dec.15 06:47  263.526  -0.0019     +9.68    0.0016
1927  Dec.16 17:44  265.008  -0.0010     +8.33    0.0015
1934  Dec.14 12:06  262.734  -0.00090    +9.30    0.0018
1941  Dec.13 04:44  261.404  -0.00079   +10.93    0.0018
1947  Dec.12 02:02  260.272  -0.00088   +13.71    0.0026
1954  Dec.11 00:47  259.202  -0.0012    +18.19    0.0036
1961  Dec.06 13:45  254.671  -0.0038    +27.66    ------

Probably, those are similar to his results.
However, fM values are very small. 
It means that the concentration of dust is very small.
So, I think it will not appear, or it will be very slight 
even if it appears.
(But, it is very interesting!)

Best regards,

Mikiya Sato
Kawasaki Municipal Science Museum (in Japan)
mail at kaicho.net


>Hi,
>
>I have noticed on Mikhail Maslov's meteor shower predictions website that notable activity from 46P\Wirtanen will be possible between December 10-14, 2012...
>
>http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/46p-ids2012eng.html
>http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/1901-2100eng/46p-ids2001-2020eng.html
>
>The following is said:
>
>"Some trails of the comet 46P pass in the Earth's vicinity in 2012. 
>These are 1915, 1927, 1934m, 1941, 1947 and 1954 trails. The most close 
>will be 1927, 1934, 1941 and 1948 trails, they will pass at -0.00058, 
>-0.00033, -0.00039, -0.00052 AU, respectively. Density of all these 
>trails are very low, fM values are only 0.02-0.05. However, ejection 
>velocities are favorable - from 8.3 to 13.7 m/s. It allows to expect 
>some notable activity from these trails. Computed maximum times are the 
>following: 14.12.2012 0:02 UT for 1927 trail, 13.12.2012 12:30 UT for 
>1934 trail, 12.12.2012 10:20 UT for 1941 trail and 11.12.2012 6:21 UT 
>for 1947 trail. The trails are quite perturbed, so accuracy of these 
>timings are not very high and perhaps it shows that during 10-14 
>December 2012 the comet 46P stream is expected to produce some 
>activity with radiation area around RA=357.0$B!<(B, Dec=+3.6$B!<(B, Vg=8.7 km/s. 
>This point is a bit to the east from stars hexagon in Pisces. 
>The expected shower's radiant is in its highest altitude during the 
>evening time, and its meteors are very slow. Maximum computed ZHR is 
>10-30 with multiple subpeaks within the given period, but this is also 
>very unreliable value, meteor brightness is expected to be on the 
>average level. The new Moon won't create any troubles for observation."
>
>I would be curious to know if Jeremie Vaubaillon, E.Lyytinen and 
>P. Jenniskens have a similar forecast?
>
>If so, these very slow moving meteors would add some additional excitement 
>during the Geminids nights!
>
>- Pierre