(meteorobs) Comet ISON Meteor Shower

Mikiya Sato mail at kaicho.net
Wed Apr 24 02:27:38 EDT 2013

Dear all,

I am Mikiya Sato.

I have done the simulation about the dust trail of comet ISON.
The orbit of comet is a hyperbola (e > 1), but I calculated 
distribution of 1-revolution trail by having assumed the long 
period, about 1400 yrs (e = 0.9999).

The dust trail sometimes approaches the earth because of perturbation 
of Jupiter. But the distance is 0.0095 AU even when the trail 
approaches the earth most. 
The distance is too far to produce active meteor shower.

+Approach time to the earth
(UT)            Distance(AU)  RP (RA, Dec)  Vg(km/s)
2003 Jan 15 09h   0.0119      152.8   17.5   50.9
2015 Jan 15 19h   0.0095      152.9   17.4   50.8
2027 Jan 16 00h   0.0113      153.0   17.4   50.7
2039 Jan 16 10h   0.0143      153.1   17.4   50.7
2051 Jan 16 09h   0.0176      153.1   17.4   50.7

This is the result of assuming that a dust trail exists.
But the comet has not approached the sun in the past because 
the orbit is hyperbolic.
Therefore, probably, the dust trail does not exist.

So, I think no meteor shower from comet ISON.

This result was published at the bulletin of our science museum.

"An examination of the possibility about the appearance of the meteor 
  storm from comet ISON (C/2012 S1) "
Sato M. 2012, Bulletin of Kawasaki Municipal Science Museum,
 vol.23, p.5-8.

But it was written in Japanese, verry sorry.
Maybe, you can see two figures from the following web page.


(If someone wishes, I will try to translate a summary.)

Best regards,

Mikiya Sato
mail at kaicho.net

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