(meteorobs) Comet ISON Meteor Shower
Mikiya Sato
mail at kaicho.net
Wed Apr 24 02:27:38 EDT 2013
Dear all,
I am Mikiya Sato.
I have done the simulation about the dust trail of comet ISON.
The orbit of comet is a hyperbola (e > 1), but I calculated
distribution of 1-revolution trail by having assumed the long
period, about 1400 yrs (e = 0.9999).
The dust trail sometimes approaches the earth because of perturbation
of Jupiter. But the distance is 0.0095 AU even when the trail
approaches the earth most.
The distance is too far to produce active meteor shower.
+Approach time to the earth
(UT) Distance(AU) RP (RA, Dec) Vg(km/s)
2003 Jan 15 09h 0.0119 152.8 17.5 50.9
2015 Jan 15 19h 0.0095 152.9 17.4 50.8
2027 Jan 16 00h 0.0113 153.0 17.4 50.7
2039 Jan 16 10h 0.0143 153.1 17.4 50.7
2051 Jan 16 09h 0.0176 153.1 17.4 50.7
This is the result of assuming that a dust trail exists.
But the comet has not approached the sun in the past because
the orbit is hyperbolic.
Therefore, probably, the dust trail does not exist.
So, I think no meteor shower from comet ISON.
This result was published at the bulletin of our science museum.
"An examination of the possibility about the appearance of the meteor
storm from comet ISON (C/2012 S1) "
Sato M. 2012, Bulletin of Kawasaki Municipal Science Museum,
vol.23, p.5-8.
But it was written in Japanese, verry sorry.
Maybe, you can see two figures from the following web page.
http://meteor.kaicho.net/ISON-trail/bulletin.html
(If someone wishes, I will try to translate a summary.)
Best regards,
Mikiya Sato
mail at kaicho.net
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