(meteorobs) What to expect with the Draconids this year ?

Karl Antier karl.antier at laposte.net
Sun Aug 18 08:47:02 EDT 2013


Hi all meteor observers !

I have a simple question...
In 2011, a Draconid outburst was accurately predicted and observed, with EZHRs reaching 300 during the maximum.
In 2012, nothing was really expected... but anyway, another unexpected outburst was less widely observed, but the EZHRs seemed to have reached the same levels than in 2011.

My questions was thus to know if someone has explained why there were an unpredicted outburst last year ? And does anyone know if some predictions have been made for this year ? Even if Draconids do not reach thousands of meteors an hour, can we expect a smaller outburst with level reaching several dozens of Draconids per hour ?

Thanks in advance for your answers!
Clear skies!
Karl







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