(meteorobs) What to expect with the Draconids this year ?

Mikhail Maslov skjeller at yandex.ru
Sun Aug 18 23:38:06 EDT 2013


KA> I have a simple question...
KA> In 2011, a Draconid outburst was accurately predicted and observed, with EZHRs reaching 300 during the maximum.
KA> In 2012, nothing was really expected... but anyway, another unexpected outburst was less widely observed, but the EZHRs seemed to have reached the same levels than in 2011.

KA> My questions was thus to know if someone has explained why there were an unpredicted outburst last year ?

It was partically predicted, in time at least. There were predictions made by a
number of forecasters that the Earth will get close to 1959 and 1965 Draconid
trails, but activity from these trails turned to be unexpectedly high.

KA>  And does anyone know if some predictions have been made for this year ?
KA>  Even if Draconids do not reach thousands of meteors an hour, can we expect a smaller
KA>  outburst with level reaching several dozens of Draconids per hour ?

THere are no predictions telling of possible Draconid activity in
2013, as far as I know. However in 2014 some activity, with ZHR of several
dozens is possible on 6 October during 20-23 UT.


Best regards,
Mikhail



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