(meteorobs) Aftermath?

[Esko Lyytinen]

Hi all,

This prediction was based on three special things. One is that an 
outburst really happened in 1930, which most probably is true.
Secondly it is based on the assumption that this was of a long period 
nature, a few hundred years in minimum. There is no actual knowledge on 
this and this is only based on the fact (above) of an unexpected short 
lived outburst that are typical to long period outbursts ( of one 
revolution trail).
Thirdly this is based on the derived radiant. If the radiant derived 
from the visual observations in 1930 is too much in error, then also the 
prediction would fail (most probably would not appear or wery weakly 
only, definite time error is not probable). This case however is not 
especially sensitive to minor errors in this.
It is now my opinion that this is not of long period, maybe of Hallye type.

I just read in meteorobs on increased radio rater. Maybe this is a GDE 
outburst. If this really is, then it could be a non modelled outburst 
fron a Halley type comet maybe.
Secondly, I am especially interested on the fireball that Thomas 
Ashcraft captured and told he expects to be a GDE. If this is, then 
hopefully some improvenemt to the radiant direction can be achived.

Esko

> I am curious; what is the next step in meteor orbit modeling after an 
> apparent failure, like that of the GDEs to 'burst out' or perhaps even 
> to 'shower?'  What can the modeler do?  What about amateurs' roles?
>
> Thanks.
>
> Rich
>
>
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