(meteorobs) Aftermath?

Esko Lyytinen esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi
Tue Jun 11 16:39:09 EDT 2013


Thank you Terry !

Esko


> Esko, so far as narrowing down the radiant is concerned, I can tell 
> you that each of the three Delphinid candidates I saw appeared to 
> point back to an area between epsilon and beta Delphinus (the tail of 
> the dolphin).  They had semi-long paths, so tracing back was rather 
> easy.  I have no photographic or video proof of this, so just my 
> visual report.
>
> Also, each one I saw occurred between 0700UT and 0815UT.
>
> --Terry
>
> *From:*meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org 
> [mailto:meteorobs-bounces at meteorobs.org] *On Behalf Of *Esko Lyytinen
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 11, 2013 12:58 PM
> *To:* Meteor science and meteor observing
> *Subject:* Re: (meteorobs) Aftermath?
>
>
> Hi all,
>
> This prediction was based on three special things. One is that an 
> outburst really happened in 1930, which most probably is true.
> Secondly it is based on the assumption that this was of a long period 
> nature, a few hundred years in minimum. There is no actual knowledge 
> on this and this is only based on the fact (above) of an unexpected 
> short lived outburst that are typical to long period outbursts ( of 
> one revolution trail).
> Thirdly this is based on the derived radiant. If the radiant derived 
> from the visual observations in 1930 is too much in error, then also 
> the prediction would fail (most probably would not appear or wery 
> weakly only, definite time error is not probable). This case however 
> is not especially sensitive to minor errors in this.
> It is now my opinion that this is not of long period, maybe of Hallye 
> type.
>
> I just read in meteorobs on increased radio rater. Maybe this is a GDE 
> outburst. If this really is, then it could be a non modelled outburst 
> fron a Halley type comet maybe.
> Secondly, I am especially interested on the fireball that Thomas 
> Ashcraft captured and told he expects to be a GDE. If this is, then 
> hopefully some improvenemt to the radiant direction can be achived.
>
> Esko
>
>     I am curious; what is the next step in meteor orbit modeling after
>     an apparent failure, like that of the GDEs to 'burst out' or
>     perhaps even to 'shower?'  What can the modeler do?  What about
>     amateurs' roles?
>
>     Thanks.
>
>     Rich
>
>
>
>
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