(meteorobs) Ursids 2014 outburst

[Mikhail Maslov]

Hi all,

It seems that the encounter with 1405 trail has occured. It was predicted at least by E. Lyytinen (23:38 UT) and me (23:54 UT), and timing of observed outburst suits quite well. Here you can see my prediction, but only in Russian - sorry, forgot to make English translation.
http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/8p-ids2014.html

And here is fast translation of its part with figures, basing on Google translator:

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In 2014 the Earth will pass near the trail of Comet 8P ejected in 1405 with the following collision parameters: minimum distance of 0.00069 AU, the ejection velocity of the particles is 22.87 m/s, the density of trail - 117.2% of the density of the plume Leonid one treatment, the date and time of maximum are 22 January 23:54 UT.  Despite the high age of the trail, the encountering part has retained its regularity and a sufficiently high density. Negative factor is the fairly high ejection velocity of particles, this means that the this part of trail is saturated mainly with fine particles, giving faint meteors. Nevertheless, we can expect a noticeable spike activity Ursid around this time, with ZHR 10-15 in addition to the background activity.  Collision with this trail was also earlier indicated by Esko Lyytinen in [4]. His results are close enough to those obtained by the author - the minimum distance to 1405 trais, according to  Lyytinen's calculations is 0.0007 AU, the time of maximum 22 December 23:38 UT, ZHR assessment is 10.
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Thanks a lot to all observers who catched on outburst of this interesting shower.

Best regards,
Mikhail Maslov