(meteorobs) [Fw: Comet ISON Meteor Shower]

Marco Langbroek marco.langbroek at online.nl
Wed Jan 8 06:22:55 EST 2014


pzeller1966 schreef op 8-1-2014 5:30:
>    Since the possible meteor shower could start as early as January 12, I was
> wondering if Pat or anyone else had an idea, at least roughly, where the radiant
> would be in Draco? I may try to get out some mornings before dawn next week to
> get a look. That is, if this weather ever calms down!


Hmmm: when I input ISON's orbital elements into Neslusan et al.'s MetRad 
software, I do not get a radiant in Draco but actually get a radiant near eta 
Leo (assuming no mistakes), near RA 10h12m Dec +17:


              EQUINOX: 2000.0;       DATA FOR YEAR: 2014
--------------------------------------------------------------------
METH.  ALPHA  DELTA    VG      VH        L     DATE-MAX.    D-DISC.
  -Q    153.0   16.8   50.90   42.60    295.7   JAN. 16.1     .003
  -B    152.5   16.8   51.63   43.44    295.7   JAN. 16.1     .003
  -W    153.0   16.2   51.08   42.64    295.7   JAN. 16.1     .026
  -A    149.9   17.8   51.90   42.64    291.0   JAN. 11.5     .324
  -H    152.3   16.5   51.08   42.64    295.0   JAN. 15.4     .023
  -P    152.7   16.5   51.28   42.64    295.0   JAN. 15.4     .083

--------------------------------------------------------------------
FIRST/SECOND (-/+) SET OF DATA CONCERNS THE PRE-/POST-PERIHELION ARC
THE BEST METHOD - PRE-PERIHELION ARC:  B     (D =  .003)


        EQUINOX: 2000.0;        DATA FOR YEAR: 2014
----------------------------------------------------------
METH.     Q       E      PERI.    NODE   INCL.     D-DISC.
  -Q     .0155  1.0002    345.5   295.7    62.4      .003
  -B     .0149  1.0014    345.5   295.7    62.4      .003
  -W     .0125  1.0002    347.0   295.7    62.4      .026
  -A     .0125  1.0002    347.0   291.0    80.5      .324
  -H     .0125  1.0002    347.0   295.0    62.4      .023
  -P     .0125  1.0002    347.0   295.0    67.0      .083

----------------------------------------------------------
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    (-) DIST. =    .684 AU;   DT =    74.7 DAYS;   MIN. DIST. =  .0227 AU


- Marco

-----
Dr Marco (asteroid 183294) Langbroek
Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)

e-mail: dms at marcolangbroek.nl
http://www.dmsweb.org
http://www.marcolangbroek.nl
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