(meteorobs) Explanation for 2013 eta-Aquariids high rates?

Mikhail Maslov skjeller at yandex.ru
Mon Mar 17 06:13:11 EDT 2014


Hi all,

There was a forecast by Mikya Sato. He posted the info here just before
the ETA maximum, on May 04. Here is his message:


MS> Dear all,

MS> I am Mikiya Sato.
MS> I found out that the old dust trails of Eta Aquariids (ETA) will 
MS> approach the earth in 2013.

MS> The outline is as follows.

MS> Trail   Date(UT)        S.Lon(deg) R(au)     Ej.V(m/s) fM
MS>  -910   May.06 05:45    45.682     -0.0018   -2.12     0.095
MS>  -910   May.06 06:27    45.710     -0.0017   -2.11     0.017
MS> -1197   May.06 12:37    45.959     +0.0021   +3.44     0.013
MS> -1197   May.06 21:19    46.310     -0.0026   +3.43     0.012

MS> In addition, -1403, -1333, -1265, -1128, -985, and -835 trail 
MS> also tend to approach the earth.
MS> The peak may be continuous or broader because distribution of 
MS> the old dust has spread.

MS> But, the increase in the number of meteors is unknown about ETA.
MS> I expect that they are about 2 times of the usual activity at 
MS> the maximum because this case is similar to Orionids from 2006 to 2010.
MS> Detection of the increase is not easy since observation condition 
MS> of ETA is not so good in the Northern Hemisphere.
MS> However, please take notice of the appearance this year. 

MS> Best regards,

MS> Mikiya Sato
MS> mail at kaicho.net


Best regards,
Mikhail Maslov


PJ> That's an excellent question, Karl.  I have the very same one.  I don't
PJ> know what the answer is and I will defer to the gurus on it, but I sure do
PJ> plan on being out there to see if there is indeed a repeat of last year's
PJ> amazing ETA performance!  Could we be so lucky two years in a row???  I
PJ> sure do hope so...

PJ> Clear skies to all, Paul in north Florida


PJ> On Sun, Mar 16, 2014 at 5:07 PM, Karl Antier <karl.antier at laposte.net>wrote:

>> Hello meteor observers!
>>
>> I have a small question about the eta-Aquariids...
>> Last year the activity of this shower was unexpectedly far above the usual
>> rates, peaking to ZHRs around 120-130. was any research done to try to find
>> why such an increased of the general activity of the shower occured? Is it
>> also possible that 2014 eta-Aquariids rates could reach such values?
>>
>> Thanks in advance!
>> Clear skies to all!
>> Karl
>>
>> P.S. : dramatic colored fireball observed on March 13, 2014, 20h59 UT,
>> from a big part of France, Switzerland and Italy. It may hjave reached
>> magnitude -10 and was filmed by three cameras (2 italian and 1 French).
>> Videos and post (in French) can be seen at this page :
>> http://www.reforme-meteor.net/bolide-sud-est-de-la-france-13032014-20h59-tu/
>> _______________________________________________
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>>



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